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Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

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Author Info
Mercedes Ayuso(universitat de Barcelona)
Miguel Santolino(Universitat de Barcelona) (Universitat de Barcelona)
Abstract

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Groupwise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 220.

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Length: 0 pages
Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:2009220

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Postal: Espai de Recerca en Economia, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques. Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, Num 1-11 08034 Barcelona. Spain.
Web page: http://www.ere.ub.es
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies

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  1. David S. Loughran, 2005. "Deterring Fraud: The Role of General Damage Awards in Automobile Insurance Settlements," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 551-575. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Viaene, Stijn & Ayuso, Mercedes & Guillen, Montserrat & Van Gheel, Dirk & Dedene, Guido, 2007. "Strategies for detecting fraudulent claims in the automobile insurance industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 565-583, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Crocker, Keith J & Tennyson, Sharon, 2002. "Insurance Fraud and Optimal Claims Settlement Strategies," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 469-507, October.
  4. Ayuso, Mercedes & Santolino, Miguel, 2007. "Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 71-83, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-11.


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