IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/azt/cemmap/20-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robust confidence regions for incomplete models

Author

Listed:
  • Larry G. Epstein
  • Hiroaki Kaido
  • Kyoungwon Seo

Abstract

Call an economic model incomplete if it does not generate a probabilistic prediction even given knowledge of all parameter values. We propose a method of inference about unknown parameters for such models that is robust to heterogeneity and dependence of unknown form. The key is a Central Limit Theorem for belief functions; robust confidence regions are then constructed in a fashion paralleling the classical approach. Monte Carlo simulations support tractability of the method and demonstrate its enhanced robustness relative to existing methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Larry G. Epstein & Hiroaki Kaido & Kyoungwon Seo, 2015. "Robust confidence regions for incomplete models," CeMMAP working papers 20/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:20/15
    DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2015.2015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CWP2015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1920/wp.cem.2015.2015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmidt, Klaus M., 1996. "Incomplete contracts and privatization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 569-579, April.
    2. Robert A. Shumsky & Edieal J. Pinker, 2003. "Gatekeepers and Referrals in Services," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(7), pages 839-856, July.
    3. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney K. & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2006. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521871525.
    4. Peter Kooreman & Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2007. "A discrete-choice model with social interactions: with an application to high school teen behavior," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 599-624.
    5. James B. Rebitzer & Mark E. Votruba, 2011. "Organizational Economics and Physician Practices," NBER Working Papers 17535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 1994. "A Course in Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650401, December.
    7. Arie Beresteanu & Francesca Molinari, 2008. "Asymptotic Properties for a Class of Partially Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(4), pages 763-814, July.
    8. Epstein, Larry G. & Seo, Kyoungwon, 2015. "Exchangeable capacities, parameters and incomplete theories," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 879-917.
    9. Markus Reisinger & Emanuele Tarantino, 2015. "Vertical integration, foreclosure, and productive efficiency," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(3), pages 461-479, September.
    10. Oliver Hart & Jean Tirole, 1990. "Vertical Integration and Market Foreclosure," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990 Micr), pages 205-286.
    11. Patrick Bajari & Han Hong & Stephen P. Ryan, 2010. "Identification and Estimation of a Discrete Game of Complete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(5), pages 1529-1568, September.
    12. Donald W. K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi, 2013. "Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 609-666, March.
    13. Eric Weese, 2015. "Political mergers as coalition formation: An analysis of the Heisei municipal amalgamations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(2), pages 257-307, July.
    14. Jenish, Nazgul & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2009. "Central limit theorems and uniform laws of large numbers for arrays of random fields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 86-98, May.
    15. Müller, Alfred & Scarsini, Marco, 2000. "Some Remarks on the Supermodular Order," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 107-119, April.
    16. Andrew Chesher & Adam M. Rosen, 2017. "Generalized Instrumental Variable Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 959-989, May.
    17. Alfred Galichon & Marc Henry, 2011. "Set Identification in Models with Multiple Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(4), pages 1264-1298.
    18. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney K. & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2006. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521692083.
    19. Jorg Stoye, 2009. "More on Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1299-1315, July.
    20. Randall D. Cebul & James B. Rebitzer & Lowell J. Taylor & Mark E. Votruba, 2008. "Organizational Fragmentation and Care Quality in the U.S. Healthcare System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 93-113, Fall.
    21. Federico Ciliberto & Elie Tamer, 2009. "Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1791-1828, November.
    22. Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong & Elie Tamer, 2007. "Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1243-1284, September.
    23. Aradillas-Lopez, Andres & Tamer, Elie, 2008. "The Identification Power of Equilibrium in Simple Games," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 261-310.
    24. Donald W. K. Andrews & Panle Jia Barwick, 2012. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2805-2826, November.
    25. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1990. "Entry in Monopoly Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(4), pages 531-553.
    26. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Shi, Xiaoxia, 2014. "Nonparametric inference based on conditional moment inequalities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 31-45.
    27. Kei Kawai & Yasutora Watanabe, 2013. "Inferring Strategic Voting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 624-662, April.
    28. Arbatskaya, Maria & Konishi, Hideo, 2012. "Referrals in search markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 89-101.
    29. Buehler, Benno & Schuett, Florian, 2014. "Certification and minimum quality standards when some consumers are uninformed," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 493-511.
    30. Philip A. Haile & Elie Tamer, 2003. "Inference with an Incomplete Model of English Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 1-51, February.
    31. Rey, Patrick & Tirole, Jean, 2007. "A Primer on Foreclosure," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: Mark Armstrong & Robert Porter (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 2145-2220, Elsevier.
    32. In-Uck Park, 2005. "Cheap-Talk Referrals of Differentiated Experts in Repeated Relationships," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(2), pages 391-411, Summer.
    33. Marinoso, Begona Garcia & Jelovac, Izabela, 2003. "GPs' payment contracts and their referral practice," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 617-635, July.
    34. Tamer, Elie, 2010. "Partial Identification in Econometrics," Scholarly Articles 34728615, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    35. Thomas N. Hubbard, 2009. "Specialization, Firms, and Markets: The Division of Labor within and between Law Firms," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 339-371, October.
    36. Arie Beresteanu & Ilya Molchanov & Francesca Molinari, 2011. "Sharp Identification Regions in Models With Convex Moment Predictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1785-1821, November.
    37. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "Observable Implications of Models with Multiple Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1431-1437, November.
    38. Jean-Jacques Laffont & David Martimort, 2000. "Mechanism Design with Collusion and Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 309-342, March.
    39. Gary Biglaiser & Ching-to Albert Ma, 2007. "Moonlighting: public service and private practice," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(4), pages 1113-1133, December.
    40. Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2004. "Referrals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 499-525, June.
    41. Elie Tamer, 2010. "Partial Identification in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 167-195, September.
    42. Alon Eizenberg, 2014. "Upstream Innovation and Product Variety in the U.S. Home PC Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1003-1045.
    43. Alan M. Garber & Jonathan Skinner, 2008. "Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 27-50, Fall.
    44. McAfee, R Preston & Schwartz, Marius, 1994. "Opportunism in Multilateral Vertical Contracting: Nondiscrimination, Exclusivity, and Uniformity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 210-230, March.
    45. Alan M. Garber & Jonathan Skinner, 2008. "Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?," NBER Working Papers 14257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Roman Inderst & Marco Ottaviani, 2009. "Misselling through Agents," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 883-908, June.
    47. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5rkqqmvrn4tl22s9mc4ao8ocg is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134.
    49. William Fuchs & Luis Garicano, 2010. "Matching Problems with Expertise in Firms and Markets," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 354-364, 04-05.
    50. Marinacci, Massimo, 1999. "Limit Laws for Non-additive Probabilities and Their Frequentist Interpretation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 145-195, February.
    51. Luis Garicano, 2000. "Hierarchies and the Organization of Knowledge in Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 874-904, October.
    52. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1840rr is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Donald W. K. Andrews & Gustavo Soares, 2010. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities Using Generalized Moment Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 119-157, January.
    54. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5rkqqmvrn4tl22s9mc4ao8ocg is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Elie Tamer, 2003. "Incomplete Simultaneous Discrete Response Model with Multiple Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(1), pages 147-165.
    56. Andrew J. Epstein & Jonathan D. Ketcham & Sean Nicholson, 2010. "Specialization and matching in professional services firms," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(4), pages 811-834, December.
    57. Mark V. Pauly, 1979. "The Ethics and Economics of Kickbacks and Fee Splitting," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 344-352, Spring.
    58. Federico A. Bugni, 2010. "Bootstrap Inference in Partially Identified Models Defined by Moment Inequalities: Coverage of the Identified Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 735-753, March.
    59. Brigham Frandsen & James B. Rebitzer, 2015. "Structuring Incentives within Accountable Care Organizations," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(suppl_1), pages 77-103.
    60. Roman Inderst & Marco Ottaviani, 2012. "Competition through Commissions and Kickbacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 780-809, April.
    61. Galichon, Alfred & Henry, Marc, 2013. "Dilation bootstrap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 109-115.
    62. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
    63. Panle Jia, 2008. "What Happens When Wal-Mart Comes to Town: An Empirical Analysis of the Discount Retailing Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1263-1316, November.
    64. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
    65. Fabrice Philippe & Gabriel Debs & Jean-Yves Jaffray, 1999. "Decision Making with Monotone Lower Probabilities of Infinite Order," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 767-784, August.
    66. Canay, Ivan A., 2010. "EL inference for partially identified models: Large deviations optimality and bootstrap validity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 408-425, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zvi Safra & Uzi Segal, 2018. "A Lot of Ambiguity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 954, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Mar 2020.
    2. Undral Byambadalai, 2022. "Identification and Inference for Welfare Gains without Unconfoundedness," Papers 2207.04314, arXiv.org.
    3. Xiaoyu Cheng, 2022. "Robust Data-Driven Decisions Under Model Uncertainty," Papers 2205.04573, arXiv.org.
    4. Hyejin Cho, 2017. "Economics Of Regulation: Credit Rationing And Excess Liquidity," Post-Print hal-01375423, HAL.
    5. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identi?cation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Hiroaki Kaido & Yi Zhang, 2019. "Robust likelihood ratio tests for incomplete economic models," CeMMAP working papers CWP68/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Chen, Zengjing & Epstein, Larry G. & Zhang, Guodong, 2023. "A central limit theorem, loss aversion and multi-armed bandits," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Econometrics with Partial Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Leung, Michael P., 2019. "A weak law for moments of pairwise stable networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 310-326.
    10. Safra, Zvi & Segal, Uzi, 2022. "A lot of ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Chen, Zengjing & Epstein, Larry G., 2022. "A central limit theorem for sets of probability measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 424-451.
    12. Shuowen Chen & Hiroaki Kaido, 2022. "Robust Tests of Model Incompleteness in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters," Papers 2208.11281, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simona Grassi & Ching-to Albert Ma, 2016. "Information acquisition, referral, and organization," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(4), pages 935-960, November.
    2. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identi?cation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Francesca Molinari, 2019. "Econometrics with Partial Identification," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Hiroaki Kaido & Yi Zhang, 2019. "Robust likelihood ratio tests for incomplete economic models," CeMMAP working papers CWP68/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Ho, Kate & Rosen, Adam M., 2015. "Partial Identification in Applied Research: Benefits and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 10883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Aradillas-López, Andrés & Rosen, Adam M., 2022. "Inference in ordered response games with complete information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 451-476.
    7. Bontemps, Christian & Kumar, Rohit, 2020. "A geometric approach to inference in set-identified entry games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 373-389.
    8. Brendan Kline & Elie Tamer, 2016. "Bayesian inference in a class of partially identified models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 329-366, July.
    9. Donald W. K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi, 2013. "Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 609-666, March.
    10. Magnac, Thierry, 2013. "Identification partielle : méthodes et conséquences pour les applications empiriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 233-258, Décembre.
    11. Marc Henry & Romuald Méango & Maurice Queyranne, 2012. "Combinatorial Bootstrap Inference IN in Prtially Identified Incomplete Structural Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-837, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    12. Christian Bontemps & Rohit Kumar, 2019. "A Geometric Approach to Inference in Set-Identified Entry Games," Working Papers hal-02137356, HAL.
    13. Yuan Liao & Anna Simoni, 2012. "Semi-parametric Bayesian Partially Identified Models based on Support Function," Papers 1212.3267, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2013.
    14. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1761rr is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ivan A. Canay & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2016. "Practical and theoretical advances in inference for partially identified models," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Thomas M. Russell, 2020. "Policy Transforms and Learning Optimal Policies," Papers 2012.11046, arXiv.org.
    17. Lee, Sokbae & Song, Kyungchul & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2018. "Testing For A General Class Of Functional Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(5), pages 1018-1064, October.
    18. Christian Bontemps & Raquel Menezes Bezerra Sampaio, 2020. "Entry games for the airline industry," Post-Print hal-02137358, HAL.
    19. Shuowen Chen & Hiroaki Kaido, 2022. "Robust Tests of Model Incompleteness in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters," Papers 2208.11281, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    20. Andrew Chesher & Adam M. Rosen, 2017. "Generalized Instrumental Variable Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 959-989, May.
    21. Hiroaki Kaido & Jiaxuan Li & Marc Rysman, 2018. "Moment inequalities in the context of simulated and predicted variables," CeMMAP working papers CWP26/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:20/15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dermot Watson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.