IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ayz/wpaper/24_01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Born in bad times: Economic conditions, selection and employment

Author

Listed:
  • Lynda Sanderson

    (Productivity Commission)

Abstract

Periods of recession can have long term impacts on the economy. Entry rates decline during recessions, depressing aggregate job creation in future. At the same time, conditions at entry may also affect long-run growth prospects at the firm level. This paper explores patterns of firm birth, growth, and death for cohorts of New Zealand firms born between 2002 and 2015, and examines the role of selection for explaining those patterns. Firms born in "bad times" - the years of and immediately following the Global Financial Crisis - are shown to start out, and remain, smaller than comparable firms born in more buoyant economic circumstances. Industry composition, firm type, and the characteristics of entrepreneurs are shown to vary across the economic cycle but cannot fully explain the size gap. While firm size gaps are small in absolute terms, as entering firms tend to be very small regardless of the economic conditions, when aggregated across firms these small employment gaps can lead to sizeable reductions in cohort employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynda Sanderson, 2024. "Born in bad times: Economic conditions, selection and employment," Working Papers 2024/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayz:wpaper:24_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.productivity.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Sanderson_born-in-bad-times.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paige Ouimet & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2011. "Who Works for Startups? The Relation between Firm Age, Employee Age, and Growth," Working Papers 11-31, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2021. "Boosting: Why You Can Use The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 521-570, May.
    3. Harris Dellas & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2003. "On the cyclicality of schooling: theory and evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 148-172, January.
    4. David C. Maré & Dean R. Hyslop & Richard Fabling, 2017. "Firm productivity growth and skill," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 302-326, September.
    5. Sara Moreira, 2017. "Firm Dynamics, Persistent Effects of Entry Conditions, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 17-29, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Teresa C Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 520-559, August.
    7. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2016. "The Slow Growth of New Plants: Learning about Demand?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(329), pages 91-129, January.
    8. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    9. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    10. Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3182-3210, October.
    11. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    12. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2017. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 963-1018.
    13. David J. McKenzie, 2006. "Disentangling Age, Cohort and Time Effects in the Additive Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 473-495, August.
    14. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    15. Emin Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Veronika Penciakova, 2021. "Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 253-257, May.
    16. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    17. Robert W. Fairlie, 2013. "Entrepreneurship, Economic Conditions, and the Great Recession," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 207-231, June.
    18. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    19. Richard Fabling & Arthur Grimes & Philip Stevens, 2012. "The relatives are fine: use of qualitative firm data in economic analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 615-618, May.
    20. Kathryn Shaw & Anders Sørensen, 2019. "The Productivity Advantage of Serial Entrepreneurs," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(5), pages 1225-1261, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cavallari, Lilia & Romano, Simone & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2021. "The original sin: Firms’ dynamics and the life-cycle consequences of economic conditions at birth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Ia Vardishvili, 2020. "Entry Decision, the Option to Delay Entry, and Business Cycles," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3182-3210, October.
    4. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan A. Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Malacrino, Davide & McQuade, Tim, 2022. "Who creates new firms when local opportunities arise?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 107-130.
    6. In Hwan Jo & Tatsuro Senga, 2019. "Aggregate Consequences of Credit Subsidy Policies: Firm Dynamics and Misallocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 68-93, April.
    7. Murmann, Martin, 2017. "The Growth and Human Capital Structure of New Firms over the Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168290, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Gomis, Roger. & Khatiwada, Sameer., 2016. "Firm dynamics and business cycle what doesn't kill you makes you stronger?," ILO Working Papers 994909323402676, International Labour Organization.
    9. Benjamin Wild Pugsley & Ay’egul ahin, 2019. "Grown-up Business Cycles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 1102-1147.
    10. Bellmann, Lisa & Brixy, Udo, 2018. "Hiring by start-ups and regional labor supply," IAB-Discussion Paper 201818, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Ryan A. Decker & Meagan McCollum & Gregory B. Upton, Jr., 2020. "Boom Town Business Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-081, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Mina, Andrea & Santoleri, Pietro, 2021. "The effect of the Great Recession on the employment growth of young vs. small firms in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 184-194.
    13. Beiler, Hendrik, 2017. "Do you dare? The effect of economic conditions on entrepreneurship among college graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 64-74.
    14. Konon, Alexander & Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2018. "Business cycles and start-ups across industries: An empirical analysis of German regions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 742-761.
    15. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    16. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Fabio Pieri & Diego Rodriguez, 2022. "One swallow does not make a summer: episodes and persistence in high growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1517-1544, March.
    17. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    18. Louis‐Philippe Beland & Bulent Unel, 2019. "Politics and entrepreneurship in the US," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 33-57, February.
    19. Robert W. Fairlie & Frank M. Fossen, 2020. "Defining Opportunity versus Necessity Entrepreneurship: Two Components of Business Creation," Research in Labor Economics, in: Change at Home, in the Labor Market, and On the Job, volume 48, pages 253-289, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. Pierre Azoulay & Benjamin F. Jones & J. Daniel Kim & Javier Miranda, 2020. "Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 65-82, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm dynamics; entrepreneurship; employment; age-period-cohort (APC) model; start-ups; Global Financial Crisis (GFC);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ayz:wpaper:24_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Fabling (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pcgovnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.