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Pakistan’s Tax Gap: Estimates By Tax Calculation and Methodology

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Author Info
Robina Ather Ahmed
Mark Rider () (Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University)
Abstract

This report provides estimates of Pakistan’s tax gap by type of tax and describes the methodologies and data used to produce these estimates. A country’s tax gap is the amount of tax that goes uncollected due to non-compliance with the tax law. For estimation purposes, the operational definition of the tax gap is the difference between potential and actual federal tax revenue, where potential revenue is the amount of tax that the government would collect if everyone fully complied with the tax law. It is a simple matter to get actual tax collections by type of tax, so the trick to estimating a country’s tax gap is to obtain a reasonably accurate measure of potential tax revenue. Our basic strategy is to use micro-simulation models to estimate the potential revenues from Pakistan’s federal taxes of which there are only a hand full. Such modeling requires micro-economic data with information about the relevant tax bases and a tax calculator to simulate tax liabilities by type of tax. The advantage of this approach is the detailed information that it provides on the rate of compliance by type of tax which should be helpful in targeting scarce tax enforcement resources and in evaluating tax policy reforms.

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Paper provided by International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University in its series International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU with number paper0811.

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Length: 78 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0811

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Related research
Keywords: Pakistan; Pakistan Taxation; tax gap; non-compliance;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  2. Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages F338-47, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stephen Smith & Michael Keen, 2007. "VAT Fraud and Evasion: What Do We Know, and What Can be Done?," IMF Working Papers 07/31, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Schneider, Friedrich & Chattopadhyay, Sumana, 2006. "The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 428-443, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Feinstein, Jonathan S, 1999. "Approaches for Estimating Noncompliance: Examples from Federal Taxation in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages F360-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Feige, Edgar L. & Urban, Ivica, 2008. "Measuring underground (unobserved, non-observed, unrecorded) economies in transition countries: Can we trust GDP?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 287-306, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2004. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," International Tax Program Papers 0411, International Tax Program, Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Dixit, Avinash, 1975. "Welfare effects of tax and price changes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-123, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Wayne Thirsk, 2008. "Tax Policy in Pakistan: An Assessment of Major Taxes and Options for Reform," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0808, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik H. Enste, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jonathan S. Feinstein, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of Income Tax Evasion and its Detection," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(1), pages 14-35, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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