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Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan: Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy

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  • Kemal, M. Ali

Abstract

Rise in the underground economy creates problems for the policy-makers to formulate economic policies, especially the monetary and fiscal policies. It is found that if there was no tax evasion, budgets balance might have been zero and positive for some years and we would not have needed to borrow as much as we had borrowed. It is concluded that the impact of the underground economy is significant to the movements of the formal economy, but the impact of formal economy is insignificant in explaining the movements in the underground economy. In the long run, underground economy and official economy are positively associated. It is estimated that the underground economy ranges between Rs 2.91 trillion and Rs 3.34 trillion (54.6 percent of GDP to 62.8 percent of GDP respectively) in 2005 and tax evasion ranges between Rs 302 billion and Rs 347 billion (5.7 percent of GDP to 6.5 percent of GDP respectively) in 2005. Underground economy and tax evasion were increasing very rapidly in the early 1980s but the rate of increase accelerated in the 1990s. It declined in 1999, but reverted to an increasing trend until 2003. It declined again in 2004 and 2005.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2226.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2226

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Keywords: Underground Economy; Tax Evasion;

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  1. Eric Friedman & Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufmann & Pablo Zoido-Lobaton, 1999. "Dodging the Grabbing Hand: The Determinants of Unofficial Activity in 69," Departmental Working Papers 199921, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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  7. Era Dabla-Norris & Andrew Feltenstein, 2003. "An Analysis of the Underground Economy and its Macroeconomic Consequences," IMF Working Papers 03/23, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bushra Yasmin & Hira Rauf, 2004. "Measuring the Underground Economy and its Impact on the Economy of Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 93-103, Jul-Dec.
  9. Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Underground Economy in the United States: Annual Estimates, 1930-80 (L'économie clandestine aux Etats-Unis: estimations annuelles, 1930-80) (La "economía subterránea" de Estados," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 30(2), pages 283-305, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Ahmed Gulzar & Novaira Junaid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 665–704.
  2. Shaikh, Salman, 2014. "Tax Increment Financing in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 53801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Shaikh, Salman, 2013. "Global Competitiveness: Challenges & Solutions for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 53796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Robina Ather Ahmed & Mark Rider, 2008. "Pakistan’s Tax Gap: Estimates By Tax Calculation and Methodology," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0811, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  5. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2010. "The Size of Informal Economy in Pakistan," Working Papers id:2493, eSocialSciences.

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