IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2112.11338.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Role of Variable Renewable Energy Penetration on Electricity Price and its Volatility Across Independent System Operators in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Olukunle O. Owolabi
  • Toryn L. J. Schafer
  • Georgia E. Smits
  • Sanhita Sengupta
  • Sean E. Ryan
  • Lan Wang
  • David S. Matteson
  • Mila Getmansky Sherman
  • Deborah A. Sunter

Abstract

The U.S. electrical grid has undergone substantial transformation with increased penetration of wind and solar -- forms of variable renewable energy (VRE). Despite the benefits of VRE for decarbonization, it has garnered some controversy for inducing unwanted effects in regional electricity markets. In this study, the role of VRE penetration is examined on the system electricity price and price volatility based on hourly, real-time, historical data from six Independent System Operators (ISOs) in the U.S. using quantile and skew t-distribution regressions. After correcting for temporal effects, we found an increase in VRE penetration is associated with decrease in system electricity price in all ISOs studied. The increase in VRE penetration is associated with decrease in temporal price volatility in five out of six ISOs studied. The relationships are non-linear. These results are consistent with the modern portfolio theory where diverse volatile assets may lead to more stable and less risky portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Olukunle O. Owolabi & Toryn L. J. Schafer & Georgia E. Smits & Sanhita Sengupta & Sean E. Ryan & Lan Wang & David S. Matteson & Mila Getmansky Sherman & Deborah A. Sunter, 2021. "Role of Variable Renewable Energy Penetration on Electricity Price and its Volatility Across Independent System Operators in the United States," Papers 2112.11338, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.11338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.11338
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Böckers, Veit & Giessing, Leonie & Rösch, Jürgen, 2013. "The green game changer: An empirical assessment of the effects of wind and solar power on the merit order," DICE Discussion Papers 104, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    2. Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik & Zvingilaite, Erika, 2010. "Reducing the market impact of large shares of intermittent energy in Denmark," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3403-3413, July.
    3. Jónsson, Tryggvi & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik, 2010. "On the market impact of wind energy forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-320, March.
    4. Quint, Dov & Dahlke, Steve, 2019. "The impact of wind generation on wholesale electricity market prices in the midcontinent independent system operator energy market: An empirical investigation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 456-466.
    5. Winkler, Jenny & Gaio, Alberto & Pfluger, Benjamin & Ragwitz, Mario, 2016. "Impact of renewables on electricity markets – Do support schemes matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 157-167.
    6. Swinand, Gregory P. & O'Mahoney, Amy, 2015. "Estimating the impact of wind generation and wind forecast errors on energy prices and costs in Ireland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 468-473.
    7. Cludius, Johanna & Hermann, Hauke & Matthes, Felix Chr. & Graichen, Verena, 2014. "The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008–2016: Estimation and distributional implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 302-313.
    8. Cutler, Nicholas J. & Boerema, Nicholas D. & MacGill, Iain F. & Outhred, Hugh R., 2011. "High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5939-5949, October.
    9. Mills, Andrew & Wiser, Ryan & Millstein, Dev & Carvallo, Juan Pablo & Gorman, Will & Seel, Joachim & Jeong, Seongeun, 2021. "The impact of wind, solar, and other factors on the decline in wholesale power prices in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    10. Craig, Michael T. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Williams, Nathaniel J. & Severnini, Edson, 2018. "A retrospective analysis of the market price response to distributed photovoltaic generation in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 394-403.
    11. Rai, Alan & Nunn, Oliver, 2020. "On the impact of increasing penetration of variable renewables on electricity spot price extremes in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 67-86.
    12. Würzburg, Klaas & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2013. "Renewable generation and electricity prices: Taking stock and new evidence for Germany and Austria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 159-171.
    13. Woo, C.K. & Ho, T. & Zarnikau, J. & Olson, A. & Jones, R. & Chait, M. & Horowitz, I. & Wang, J., 2014. "Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 234-244.
    14. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    15. Ronald Huisman & Victoria Stradnic & Sjur Westgaard, 2013. "Renewable energy and electricity prices: indirect empirical evidence from hydro power," Working Papers 2013/24, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    16. Forrest, Sam & MacGill, Iain, 2013. "Assessing the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices and generator dispatch in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 120-132.
    17. Sáenz de Miera, Gonzalo & del Ri­o González, Pablo & Vizcaino, Ignacio, 2008. "Analysing the impact of renewable electricity support schemes on power prices: The case of wind electricity in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3345-3359, September.
    18. Deetjen, Thomas A. & Garrison, Jared B. & Rhodes, Joshua D. & Webber, Michael E., 2016. "Solar PV integration cost variation due to array orientation and geographic location in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 607-616.
    19. Ronald Huisman & Victoria Stradnic & Sjur Westgaard, 2013. "Renewable energy and electricity prices: indirect empirical evidence from hydro power," Working Papers 2013/24, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    20. Haratyk, Geoffrey, 2017. "Early nuclear retirements in deregulated U.S. markets: Causes, implications and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 150-166.
    21. James Bushnell & Kevin Novan, 2018. "Setting with the Sun: The Impacts of Renewable Energy on Wholesale Power Markets," NBER Working Papers 24980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Gelabert, Liliana & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2011. "An ex-post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on Spanish electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 59-65.
    23. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    24. Stasinopoulos, D. Mikis & Rigby, Robert A., 2007. "Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i07).
    25. Geoffrey S. Rothwell, 2000. "The Risk of Early Retirement of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants under Electricity Deregulation and CO2 Emission Reductions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 61-87.
    26. Woo, C.K. & Horowitz, I. & Moore, J. & Pacheco, A., 2011. "The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3939-3944, July.
    27. Rintamäki, Tuomas & Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Salo, Ahti, 2017. "Does renewable energy generation decrease the volatility of electricity prices? An analysis of Denmark and Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 270-282.
    28. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erten, Ibrahim, 2022. "Price spikes, temporary price caps, and welfare effects of regulatory interventions on wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    29. Tsai, Chen-Hao & Eryilmaz, Derya, 2018. "Effect of wind generation on ERCOT nodal prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 21-33.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    2. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    3. Mills, Andrew & Wiser, Ryan & Millstein, Dev & Carvallo, Juan Pablo & Gorman, Will & Seel, Joachim & Jeong, Seongeun, 2021. "The impact of wind, solar, and other factors on the decline in wholesale power prices in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Zarnikau, J. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K., 2020. "Determinants of the wholesale prices of energy and ancillary services in the U.S. Midcontinent electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Nibedita, Barsha & Irfan, Mohd, 2022. "Analyzing the asymmetric impacts of renewables on wholesale electricity price: Empirical evidence from the Indian electricity market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 538-551.
    6. Javier L'opez Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2020. "The Economics of Variable Renewables and Electricity Storage," Papers 2012.15371, arXiv.org.
    7. Kolb, Sebastian & Dillig, Marius & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Karl, Jürgen, 2020. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany - An update for the years 2014–2018," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2019. "The “Merit-order effect” of wind and solar power: Volatility and determinants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 54-62.
    9. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.
    10. Thao Pham & Killian Lemoine, 2020. "Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany : Evidence from a GARCH model with panel data," Working Papers hal-02568268, HAL.
    11. Gürtler, Marc & Paulsen, Thomas, 2018. "The effect of wind and solar power forecasts on day-ahead and intraday electricity prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 150-162.
    12. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2020. "The impact of the integration of renewable energy sources in the electricity price formation: is the Merit-Order Effect occurring in Portugal?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Concettini, Silvia & Creti, Anna & Gualdi, Stanislao, 2022. "Assessing the regional redistributive effect of renewable power production through a spot market algorithm simulator: The case of Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S. & Woo, C.K. & Tsai, C.H., 2020. "Texas's operating reserve demand curve's generation investment incentive," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    16. Mehtap Kilic & Elisa Trujillo-Baute, 2014. "The stabilizing effect of hydro reservoir levels on intraday power prices under wind forecast errors," Working Papers 2014/30, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    17. Mills, Andrew D. & Levin, Todd & Wiser, Ryan & Seel, Joachim & Botterud, Audun, 2020. "Impacts of variable renewable energy on wholesale markets and generating assets in the United States: A review of expectations and evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Mehtap Kilic & Elisa Trujillo-Baute, 2014. "The stabilizing effect of hydro reservoir levels on intraday power prices under wind forecast errors," Working Papers 2014/30, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    19. Shao, Jing & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Jinke & Liu, Guy, 2022. "An evaluation of the consumer-funded renewable obligation scheme in the UK for wind power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Konstandatos, Otto & Rai, Alan, 2021. "Wind generation and the dynamics of electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.11338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.