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Inference on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Very Many Instrumental Variables

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  • Max-Sebastian Dov`i

Abstract

Limited-information inference on New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs) and other single-equation macroeconomic relations is characterised by weak and high-dimensional instrumental variables (IVs). Beyond the efficiency concerns previously raised in the literature, I show by simulation that ad-hoc selection procedures can lead to substantial biases in post-selection inference. I propose a Sup Score test that remains valid under dependent data, arbitrarily weak identification, and a number of IVs that increases exponentially with the sample size. Conducting inference on a standard NKPC with 359 IVs and 179 observations, I find substantially wider confidence sets than those commonly found.

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  • Max-Sebastian Dov`i, 2021. "Inference on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Very Many Instrumental Variables," Papers 2101.09543, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2101.09543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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