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Using Machine Learning to Predict Realized Variance

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  • Peter Carr
  • Liuren Wu
  • Zhibai Zhang

Abstract

In this paper we formulate a regression problem to predict realized volatility by using option price data and enhance VIX-styled volatility indices' predictability and liquidity. We test algorithms including regularized regression and machine learning methods such as Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) on S&P 500 Index and its option data. By conducting a time series validation we find that both Ridge regression and FNN can improve volatility indexing with higher prediction performance and fewer options required. The best approach found is to predict the difference between the realized volatility and the VIX-styled index's prediction rather than to predict the realized volatility directly, representing a successful combination of human learning and machine learning. We also discuss suitability of different regression algorithms for volatility indexing and applications of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Carr & Liuren Wu & Zhibai Zhang, 2019. "Using Machine Learning to Predict Realized Variance," Papers 1909.10035, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1909.10035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    4. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yue Zhuo & Takayuki Morimoto, 2024. "A Hybrid Model for Forecasting Realized Volatility Based on Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model and Support Vector Regression," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Kim Christensen & Mathias Siggaard & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2021. "A machine learning approach to volatility forecasting," CREATES Research Papers 2021-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Tehseen Mazhar & Rizwana Naz Asif & Muhammad Amir Malik & Muhammad Asgher Nadeem & Inayatul Haq & Muhammad Iqbal & Muhammad Kamran & Shahzad Ashraf, 2023. "Electric Vehicle Charging System in the Smart Grid Using Different Machine Learning Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Alexander Brunhuemer & Lukas Larcher & Philipp Seidl & Sascha Desmettre & Johannes Kofler & Gerhard Larcher, 2022. "Supervised machine learning classification for short straddles on the S&P500," Papers 2204.13587, arXiv.org.

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