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How interbank lending amplifies overlapping portfolio contagion: A case study of the Austrian banking network

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  • Fabio Caccioli
  • J. Doyne Farmer
  • Nick Foti
  • Daniel Rockmore
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    Abstract

    In spite of the growing theoretical literature on cascades of failures in interbank lending networks, empirical results seem to suggest that networks of direct exposures are not the major channel of financial contagion. In this paper we show that networks of interbank exposures can however significantly amplify contagion due to overlapping portfolios. To illustrate this point, we consider the case of the Austrian interbank network and perform stress tests on it according to different protocols. We consider in particular contagion due to (i) counterparty loss; (ii) roll-over risk; and (iii) overlapping portfolios. We find that the average number of bankruptcies caused by counterparty loss and roll-over risk is fairly small if these contagion mechanisms are considered in isolation. Once portfolio overlaps are also accounted for, however, we observe that the network of direct interbank exposures significantly contributes to systemic risk.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1306.3704
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1306.3704.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1306.3704

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    1. Xia, Yongxiang & Fan, Jin & Hill, David, 2010. "Cascading failure in Watts–Strogatz small-world networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1281-1285.
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    3. Catherine J. Morrison, 1985. "Productivity Measurement with Nonstatic Expectations and Varying Capacity Utilization: An Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 1561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
    6. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    7. Claus Puhr & Reinhardt Seliger & Michael Sigmund, 2012. "Contagiousness and Vulnerability in the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 24.
    8. Lenzu, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4331-4341.
    9. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    10. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    11. Georg, Co-Pierre, 2011. "The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    12. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
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