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Contagion Risk in the Czech Financial System: A Network Analysis and Simulation Approach

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  • Vaclav Hausenblas
  • Ivana Kubicova
  • Jitka Lesanovska

Abstract

This paper examines the potential for contagion within the Czech banking system via the channel of interbank exposures of domestic banks enriched by a liquidity channel and an asset price channel over the period March 2007 to June 2012. A computational model is used to assess the resilience of the Czech banking system to interbank contagion, taking into account the size and structure of interbank exposures as well as balance sheet and regulatory characteristics of individual banks in the network. The simulation results suggest that the potential for contagion due to credit losses on interbank exposures was rather limited. Even after the introduction of a liquidity condition into the simulations, the average contagion was below 3.8% of the remaining banking sector assets, with the exception of the period from December 2007 to September 2008. Activation of the asset price channel further increases the losses due to interbank contagion, showing that liquidity of government bonds would be essential for the stability of Czech banks in stress situations. Finally, the simulation results for both idiosyncratic and multiple bank failure shocks suggest that the potential for contagion in the Czech banking system has decreased since the onset of the global financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2012/14.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2012/14

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Keywords: Contagion; financial crisis; interbank market; market structure.;

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  1. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "How to Improve the Quality of Stress Tests through Backtesting," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 325-346, August.
  2. Rajkamal Iyer & José-Luis Peydró, 0. "Interbank Contagion at Work: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1337-1377.
  3. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  4. Thomas Lux, Daniel Fricke, 2012. "Core-Periphery Structure in the Overnight Money Market: Evidence from the e-MID Trading Platform," Kiel Working Papers 1759, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
  6. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
  7. Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2007. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
  9. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  10. Craig, Ben R. & von Peter, Goetz, 2010. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
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