Testing for Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation Using a Latent Choice Multinomial Logit Model
AbstractThe most persistently troubling empirical result in the contingent valuation method literature is the tendency for hypothetical willingness to pay to overestimate real willingness to pay. We suggest a new approach to test and correct for hypothetical bias using a latent choice multinomial logit (LCMNL) model. To develop this model, we extend Dempster, Laird, and Rubin’s (1977) work on the EM algorithm to the estimation of a multinomial logit model with missing information on categorical membership. Using data on both the quality of water in the Catawba River in North Carolina and the preservation of Saginaw wetlands in Michigan, we find two types of “yes” responders in both data sets. We suggest that one set of yes responses are yea-sayers who suffer from hypothetical bias and answer yes to the hypothetical question but would not pay the bid amount if it were real. The second group does not suffer from hypothetical bias and would pay the bid amount if it were real.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number 06-09.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Postal: Thelma C. Raley Hall, Boone, North Carolina 28608
Web page: http://www.business.appstate.edu/departments/economics/
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C25; P230; Q51;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- P23 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population
- Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2006-06-03 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-ECM-2006-06-03 (Econometrics)
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- John C. Whitehead & Peter A. Groothuis & Rob Southwick & Pat Foster-Turley, 2006. "Economic Values of Saginaw Bay Coastal Marshes," Working Papers 06-10, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
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University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(3).
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- Ethier, Robert G. & Poe, Gregory L. & Vossler, Christian A. & Welsh, Michael P., 2001. "Payment Certainty in Discrete Choice Contigent Valuation Responses: Results from a Field Validity Test," Working Papers 127668, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
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