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Brecha de la capacidad de utilización como medida alternativa de la brecha producto: Un enfoque para Perú basado en micro datos

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Contreras M.

    (BCRP, UDEP, UPC y UNI)

  • Pablo Del Aguila R.

    (BCRP y Universidad Católica Santo Toribio de Mogrovejo)

  • Fernando Alonso Regalado S.

    (BCRP y Universidad del Pacífico)

  • F. Martín Martinez P.

    (BCRP y Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos)

Abstract

Proponemos una medida alternativa para la brecha producto de Perú basada en el uso de datos a nivel de firma de la Encuesta de Expectativas Macroeconómicas elaborada por el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. La evidencia internacional apoya el uso de la brecha de capacidad de utilización como una medida exacta de la brecha producto y de desempleo. Suiza y Turquía han reportado utilizar este indicador para medir la dinámica de inflación y las fluctuaciones del ciclo económico. Calculamos la tasa NAIRCU (non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilisation) por empresa, para luego agregar la NAIRCU y obtener un indicador líder del ciclo económico. Este indicador proporciona información 45 días antes que los indicadores más comunes basados en el PIB. Además, proporciona información relevante sobre la dinámica de inflación dos trimestres por adelantado, una característica clave para los propósitos de política monetaria. Por lo tanto, la medida propuesta es un indicador de alta frecuencia y robustez teórica que puede ser utilizada como una medida alternativa dada sus ventajas metodológicas: (i) es libre de revisión, (ii) puede obtenerse de manera oportuna, (iii) no supone el uso de priors estadísticos, y (iv) permite estimar una variable no observable directamente de datos micro.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Contreras M. & Pablo Del Aguila R. & Fernando Alonso Regalado S. & F. Martín Martinez P., 2017. "Brecha de la capacidad de utilización como medida alternativa de la brecha producto: Un enfoque para Perú basado en micro datos," Working Papers 94, Peruvian Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2017-094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
    3. Rose McElhattan, 1985. "Inflation, supply shocks and the stable-inflation rate of capacity utilization," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 45-63.
    4. Şahinöz, Saygın & Atabek, Aslıhan, 2016. "An alternative micro-based output gap measure for Turkey: The capacity utilisation gap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 44-47.
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