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Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Òscar Jordà

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; and Department of Economics, University of California, Davis)

  • Martin Kornejew

    (Department of Economics, University of Bonn)

  • Moritz Schularick

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and Department of Economics, University of Bonn; and CEPR)

  • Alan M. Taylor

    (Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis; NBER; and CEPR)

Abstract

With business leverage at record levels, the effects of corporate debt overhang on growth and investment have become a prominent concern. In this paper, we study the effects of corporate debt overhang based on long-run cross-country data covering the nearuniverse of modern business cycles. We show that business credit booms typically do not leave a lasting imprint on the macroeconomy. Quantile local projections indicate that business credit booms do not affect the economy’s tail risks either. Yet in line with theory, we find that the economic costs of corporate debt booms rise when inefficient debt restructuring and liquidation impede the resolution of corporate financial distress and make it more likely that corporate zombies creep along.

Suggested Citation

  • Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 042, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:042
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    7. Davis, Leila & de Souza, Joao & Kim, YK. & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "What are firms borrowing for? The role of financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Bruno Albuquerque, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints, and the investment nexus," CeBER Working Papers 2021-08, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    9. Angela De Martiis & Franziska J. Peter, 2023. "When companies don't die: Analyzing zombie firms in a low interest rate environment," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 73(01), pages 67-86, December.
    10. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Horvath, Balint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2023. "Loan Recoveries and the Financing of Zombie Firms over the Business Cycle," Other publications TiSEM f86d5fb2-4829-426b-b026-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    13. HONDA Tomohito & ONO Arito & UESUGI Iichiro & YASUDA Yukihiro, 2023. "Anatomy of Out-of-court Debt Workouts for SMEs," Discussion papers 23088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    17. Kin Wai Cheung & Masami Imai, 2023. "Zombie Lending, Labor Hoarding, and Local Industry Growth," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2023-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    18. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate debt; business cycles; local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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