IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersrr/55947.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Baby Boom Migration and Its Impact on Rural America

Author

Listed:
  • Cromartie, John
  • Nelson, Peter

Abstract

Members of the baby boom cohort, now 45-63 years old, are approaching a period in their lives when moves to rural and small-town destinations increase. An analysis of age-specific, net migration during the 1990s reveals extensive shifts in migration patterns as Americans move through different life-cycle stages. Assuming similar age patterns of migration, this report identifies the types of nonmetropolitan counties that are likely to experience the greatest surge in baby boom migration during 2000-20 and projects the likely impact on the size and distribution of retirement-age populations in destination counties. The analysis finds a significant increase in the propensity to migrate to nonmetro counties as people reach their fifties and sixties and projects a shift in migration among boomers toward more isolated settings, especially those with high natural and urban amenities and lower housing costs. If baby boomers follow past migration patterns, the nonmetro population age 55-75 will increase by 30 percent between now and 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Cromartie, John & Nelson, Peter, 2009. "Baby Boom Migration and Its Impact on Rural America," Economic Research Report 55947, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:55947
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.55947
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/55947/files/err79.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.55947?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard A. Wright & Mark Ellis & Michael Reibel, 1997. "The Linkage between Immigration and Internal Migration in Large Metropolitan Areas in the United States," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(2), pages 234-254, April.
    2. Peter B Nelson, 2005. "Migration and the Regional Redistribution of Nonearnings Income in the United States: Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Perspectives from 1975 to 2000," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 37(9), pages 1613-1636, September.
    3. Mark Ferguson & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert & Mark Partridge, 2007. "Voting with Their Feet: Jobs versus Amenities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 77-110, March.
    4. Karl Taeuber, 1966. "Cohort migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(2), pages 416-422, June.
    5. Adrian J. Bailey, 1994. "Migration And Unemployment Duration Among Young Adults," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 289-307, July.
    6. Beale, Calvin L., 2004. "Nonmetro Counties Vary by Urban Size and Metro Proximity," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, pages 1-1, November.
    7. Cromartie, John B., 2001. "Migrants in the Rural South Choose Urban and Natural Amenities," Rural America/ Rural Development Perspectives, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 15(4), February.
    8. Vias, Alexander C., 1999. "Jobs Follow People in the Rural Rocky Mountain West," Rural America/ Rural Development Perspectives, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 14(2), September.
    9. Kenneth Johnson & Paul Voss & Roger Hammer & Glenn Fuguitt & Scott Mcniven, 2005. "Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 791-812, November.
    10. Beyers, William B. & Lindahl, David P., 1996. "Lone Eagles and High Fliers in Rural Producer Services," Rural America/ Rural Development Perspectives, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 11(3), June.
    11. McGranahan, David A., 1999. "Natural Amenities Drive Rural Population Change," Agricultural Economic Reports 33955, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. McGranahan, David A., 1985. "Changes in Age Structure and Rural Community Growth," Rural America/ Rural Development Perspectives, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 1(3), June.
    13. Bailey, Adrian J, 1993. "Migration History, Migration Behavior and Selectivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 27(4), pages 315-326, December.
    14. Beale, Calvin L., 1975. "The Revival of Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan America," Miscellaneous Publications 329283, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burkhart-Kriesel, Cheryl A., 2009. "Baby Boomers: Will They Be Moving to Rural Nebraska?," Cornhusker Economics 306634, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    2. Israel Schwarzlose, Alicia A. & Mjelde, James W. & Dudensing, Rebekka M. & Jin, Yanhong & Cherrington, Linda K. & Chen, Junyi, 2014. "Willingness to pay for public transportation options for improving the quality of life of the rural elderly," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Tierney, Sean, 2011. "The rural utility response to Colorado’s electricity mandates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7217-7223.
    4. Kenneth M. Johnson & Richelle L. Winkler, 2015. "Migration signatures across the decades," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(38), pages 1065-1080.
    5. Nelson, Peter & Cromartie, John, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Migration, Local Mobility, and the spread of COVID-19 in Rural America," USDA Miscellaneous 333531, United States Department of Agriculture.
    6. Pender, John L. & Marre, Alexander W. & Reeder, Richard J., 2012. "Rural Wealth Creation Concepts, Strategies, and Measures," Economic Research Report 121860, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Cheryl Burkhart-Kriesel & Randolph Cantrell & Nancy Hodur & Charlotte Narjes & Rebecca Vogt, 2014. "Marketing rural communities: a qualitative study on the power of community images," Community Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 180-193, May.
    8. Lawson, Megan M. & Rasker, Ray & Gude, Patricia H., 2014. "The Importance of Non-labor Income: An Analysis of Socioeconomic Performance in Western Counties by Type of Non-labor Income," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2).
    9. Israel, Alicia & Mjelde, James W. & Dudensing, Rebekka M. & Cherrington, Linda & Jin, Yanhong H. & Chen, Junyi, 2012. "The Value of Transportation for Improving the Quality of Life of the Rural Elderly," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119667, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Rasker, Ray & Gude, Patricia H. & Delorey, Mark, 2013. "The Effect of Protected Federal Lands on Economic Prosperity in the Non-metropolitan West," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2).
    11. Richelle L. Winkler & Kenneth M. Johnson, 2016. "Moving Toward Integration? Effects of Migration on Ethnoracial Segregation Across the Rural-Urban Continuum," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1027-1049, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Waltert, Fabian & Schläpfer, Felix, 2010. "Landscape amenities and local development: A review of migration, regional economic and hedonic pricing studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 141-152, December.
    2. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do Local Amenities Affect The Appeal Of Regions In Europe For Migrants?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 535-561, October.
    3. Wojan, Timothy R. & McGranahan, David A., 2007. "Ambient Returns: Creative Capital's Contribution to Local Manufacturing Competitiveness," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Elena G. Irwin & Andrew M. Isserman & Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "A Century of Research on Rural Development and Regional Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 522-553.
    5. Schaeffer, Y. & Dissart, J.-C., 2018. "Natural and Environmental Amenities: A Review of Definitions, Measures and Issues," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 475-496.
    6. Davidsson, Michael & Rickman, Dan S., 2011. "U.S. Micropolitan Area Growth: A Spatial Equilibrium Growth Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 41(2,3), pages 179-203, Fall, Win.
    7. Dobis, Elizabeth A. & Cromartie, John & Williams, Ryan & Reed, Kyle, 2023. "Characterizing Rugged Terrain in the United States," Economic Research Report 338942, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Paul Voss, 2007. "Demography as a Spatial Social Science," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(5), pages 457-476, December.
    9. Dan S. Rickman & Shane D. Rickman, 2011. "Population Growth In High‐Amenity Nonmetropolitan Areas: What'S The Prognosis?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(5), pages 863-879, December.
    10. Poudyal, Neelam C. & Hodges, Donald G. & Cordell, H. Ken, 2008. "The role of natural resource amenities in attracting retirees: Implications for economic growth policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 240-248, December.
    11. McClain, Verena & Waldorf, Brigitte, 2017. "Borrowing From The Demographer's Toolbox: Longitudinal Methods in Regional Science," Working papers 264970, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    12. Tervo, Hannu, 2016. "Do People Follow Jobs or Do Jobs Follow People? The Case of Finland in an International Context," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1).
    13. Sarah A. Low & Mallory L. Rahe & Andrew J. Van Leuven, 2023. "Has COVID‐19 made rural areas more attractive places to live? Survey evidence from Northwest Missouri," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 520-540, April.
    14. Gunderson, Ronald J. & Pinto, James V. & Williams, Robert H., 2008. "Economic or Amenity Driven Migration? A Cluster-Based Analysis of County Migration in the Four Corners States," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 38(3), pages 1-12.
    15. Hong, Junpyo, 2011. "The Role of Amenities in a Regional Economy: A Meta-Analysis Approach," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 34(5), pages 1-27, December.
    16. Kamar Ali & Mark D. Partridge & M. Rose Olfert, 2007. "Can Geographically Weighted Regressions Improve Regional Analysis and Policy Making?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 30(3), pages 300-329, July.
    17. Mikaela Backman & Pia Nilsson, 2018. "The role of cultural heritage in attracting skilled individuals," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(1), pages 111-138, February.
    18. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    19. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Patridge, Mark D. & Galloway, Hamilton, 2008. "Are High-Tech Employment and Natural Amenities Linked?: Answers from a Smoothed Bayesian Spatial Model," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6459, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. M. Rose Olfert & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "Best Practices in Twenty‐First‐Century Rural Development and Policy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 147-164, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:55947. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.