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How Retail Beef and Bread Prices Respond to Changes in Ingredient and Input and Costs

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  • Roeger, Edward
  • Leibtag, Ephraim S.

Abstract

The extent to which cost changes pass through a vertically organized production process depends on the value added by each producer in the chain as well as a number of other organizational and marketing factors at each stage of production. Using 36 years of monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics price indices data (1972-2008), we model pass-through behavior for beef and bread, two retail food items with different levels of processing. Both the farm-to-wholesale and wholesale-to-retail price responses are modeled to allow for the presence of structural breaks in the underlying long-term relationships between price series. Broad differences in price behavior are found not only between food categories (retail beef prices respond more to farm-price changes than do retail bread prices) but also across stages in the supply chain. While farm-to-wholesale relationships generally appear to be symmetric, retail prices have a more complicated response behavior. For both bread and beef, the pass through from wholesale to retail is weaker than that from farm to wholesale.

Suggested Citation

  • Roeger, Edward & Leibtag, Ephraim S., 2011. "How Retail Beef and Bread Prices Respond to Changes in Ingredient and Input and Costs," Economic Research Report 102757, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:102757
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.102757
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    1. Prasanna Surathkal & Chanjin Chung, 2017. "Retail price responses to changes in wholesale prices in the US beef industry: differences among quality grades and primal cuts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(54), pages 5512-5522, November.
    2. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    3. Hawkes, Corinna & Friel, Sharon & Lobstein, Tim & Lang, Tim, 2012. "Linking agricultural policies with obesity and noncommunicable diseases: A new perspective for a globalising world," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 343-353.
    4. Kuhns, Annemarie & Leibtag, Ephraim & Volpe, Richard & Roeger, Ed, 2015. "How USDA Forecasts Retail Food Price Inflation," Technical Bulletins 206500, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Diab, Sara & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2023. "Do increases in gasoline prices cause higher food prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).

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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries;

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