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Food And Agricultural Commodity Consumption In The United States: Looking Ahead To 2020


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  • Lin, Biing-Hwan
  • Variyam, Jayachandran N.
  • Allshouse, Jane E.
  • Cromartie, John


U.S. consumption of food commodities is projected to rise through the year 2020, mainly due to an increase in population. But the mix of commodities is expected to shift because of an older and more diverse population, rising income, higher educational attainment, improved diet and health knowledge, and growing popularity of eating out. This study analyzes data from USDA's food consumption survey to project the consumption, through the year 2020, of 25 food groups and 22 commodity groups. Per capita consumption of fish, poultry, eggs, yogurt, fruits, nuts and seeds, lettuce, tomatoes, some other vegetables, grains, and vegetable oils is predicted to rise, whereas consumption of beef, pork, other meat, milk, cheese, potatoes, and sugar is expected to fall. The growth of the at-home and away-from-home markets varies from one commodity to another. Fruit consumption is expected to lead all commodities in growth in the at-home market, and fish consumption is expected to lead in growth in the away-from-home market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service in its series Agricultural Economics Reports with number 33959.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:uerser:33959

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Related research

Keywords: Eating out; diet and health knowledge; food-commodity translation database; food consumption projections; commodity consumption projections; Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals; 1994-96 and 1998; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety;


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  1. Wales, T. J. & Woodland, A. D., 1983. "Estimation of consumer demand systems with binding non-negativity constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 263-285, April.
  2. Variyam, Jayachandran N. & Blaylock, James R. & Smallwood, David M. & Basiotis, P. Peter, 1998. "USDA's Healthy Eating Index and Nutrition Information," Technical Bulletins 33588, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  3. Federico Perali & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2000. "Estimation of Censored Demand Equations from Large Cross-Section Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 1022-1037.
  4. J. Scott Shonkwiler & Steven T. Yen, 1999. "Two-Step Estimation of a Censored System of Equations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 972-982.
  5. Lin, Biing-Hwan & Frazao, Elizabeth & Guthrie, Joanne F., 1999. "Away-From-Home Foods Increasingly Important to Quality of American Diet," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33733, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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Cited by:
  1. Mori, Hiroshi & Clason, Dennis L., 2004. "A Cohort Approach for Predicting Future Eating Habits: The Case of At-Home Consumption of Fresh Fish and Meat in an Aging Japanese Society," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 7(01).
  2. Davis, Christopher G. & Yen, Steven T. & Lin, Biing-Hwan, 2007. "Does Consumer Knowledge Affect Meat Consumption in the US?," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34905, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  3. Lin, Biing-Hwan & Yen, Steven T., 2005. "Consumer Knowledge, Food Label Use and Grain Consumption," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19557, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. O’Dierno, Linda J. & Islam, Sho & Govindasamy, Ramu & Myers, Joseph J. & Puduri, Venkata S., 2005. "Identification and Evaluation of Viable Market Opportunities for Organically-Grown Aquatic Products: Results from the Focus Group Meetings," P Series 36737, Rutgers University, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics.
  5. O’Dierno, Linda J. & Govindasamy, Ramu & Puduri, Venkata S. & Myers, Joseph J. & Islam, Sho, 2006. "Consumer Perceptions and Preferences for Organic Aquatic Products: Results from the Telephone Survey," P Series 36743, Rutgers University, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics.
  6. Lin, Biing-Hwan & Yen, Steven T., 2007. "The U.S. Grain Consumption Landscape: Who Eats Grain, in What Form, Where, and How Much?," Economic Research Report 55967, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  7. Armbruster, Walter J. & Coyle, William T. & Gilmour, Brad, 2004. "Where Will Demographics Take the Asia-Pacific Food System?," 2004 Conference (48th), February 11-13, 2004, Melbourne, Australia 58368, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.


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