A Cohort Approach for Predicting Future Eating Habits: The Case of At-Home Consumption of Fresh Fish and Meat in an Aging Japanese Society
AbstractDue to a rapidly aging society, stagnating per capita income and rather stable prices, traditional economic analyses methods lost their power in the 1990s to predict future food product consumption in Japan. This study, in part, remedies this problem by projecting future consumption of selected products, using a cohort approach with economic factors tentatively set aside. Per capita consumption of individual household members by age was derived by incorporating family age composition into household data classified by age groups of household head (HH). Individual consumption estimates were decomposed into age, cohort and time effects, using the Nakamura's Bayesian cohort model. These effects were synthesized to predict per capita consumption in each population age cell in 2010 and 2020. Although some method refinement is warranted, the cohort approach proves a useful tool in improving prediction of future food product consumption and, combined with economic factors, may prove useful in future economic forecasting.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA) in its journal International Food and Agribusiness Management Review.
Volume (Year): 07 (2004)
Issue (Month): 01 ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Angus Deaton & Christina H. Paxson, 1993.
"Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan,"
NBER Working Papers
4330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hayes, Dermot J. & Wahl, Thomas I. & Williams, Gary W., 1990. "Testing Restrictions on a Model of Japanese Meat Demand," Staff General Research Papers 10940, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Lin, Biing-Hwan & Variyam, Jayachandran N. & Allshouse, Jane E. & Cromartie, John, 2003. "Food And Agricultural Commodity Consumption In The United States: Looking Ahead To 2020," Agricultural Economics Reports 33959, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Eales, James S. & Roheim, Cathy A., 1999. "Testing Separability Of Japanese Demand For Meat And Fish Within Differential Demand Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.