IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae18/277376.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International interdependence between cash crop and staple food futures price indices: A wavelet-BEKK-GARCH assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Heckelei, T.
  • Amrouk, E.M.
  • Grosche, S.

Abstract

This study examines the price level and volatility interaction between international staple food and cash crop futures price indices. Understanding the relationship between these commodities bears significant implication for net food importing developing countries that depend on cash crop to finance food import bills. We use a wavelet analysis to decompose and denoise the price indices and then apply a BEKK-MGARCH approach to analyze the relationship across time-frequency domains. Results indicate the level of correlation and volatility linkages are strongest at lower frequencies (i.e. longer run), with markets adjusting quickly to volatility shocks after a high initial impact. Acknowledgement :

Suggested Citation

  • Heckelei, T. & Amrouk, E.M. & Grosche, S., 2018. "International interdependence between cash crop and staple food futures price indices: A wavelet-BEKK-GARCH assessment," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277376, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277376
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.277376
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/277376/files/1872.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.277376?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    3. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    4. Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T., 2009. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and equity sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 95-100, June.
    5. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    6. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, June.
    7. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    8. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
    9. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    10. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    11. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2012. "Crude oil price forecasting: Experimental evidence from wavelet decomposition and neural network modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 828-841.
    12. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2010. "Long-range dependence in the volatility of commodity futures prices: Wavelet-based evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 79-90.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Govereh, Jones & Jayne, T. S., 2003. "Cash cropping and food crop productivity: synergies or trade-offs?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 39-50, January.
    15. Ondrej Filip & Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek & David Zilberman, 2016. "Dynamics and evolution of the role of biofuels in global commodity and financial markets," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Alanoud Al-Maadid & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Spillovers between food and energy prices and structural breaks," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 150, pages 1-18.
    17. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Mallory, Mindy L. & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in U.S. Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-16, August.
    18. Lin Gao & Lu Liu, 2014. "The Volatility Behavior and Dependence Structure of Commodity Futures and Stocks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 93-101, January.
    19. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    20. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    21. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
    22. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
    23. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    24. C. Peter Timmer, 1997. "Farmers and Markets: The Political Economy of New Paradigms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 621-627.
    25. Mark W. Rosegrant & Tingju Zhu & Siwa Msangi & Timothy Sulser, 2008. "Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 495-505.
    26. Michael T. Weber & John M. Staatz & Eric W. Crawford & Richard H. Bernsten & John S. Holtzman, 1988. "Informing Food Security Decisions in Africa: Empirical Analysis and Policy Dialogue," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1044-1052.
    27. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2017. "Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 230-239.
    28. Theriault, Veronique & Tschirley, David L., 2014. "How Institutions Mediate the Impact of Cash Cropping on Food Crop Intensification: An Application to Cotton in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 298-310.
    29. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
    30. Chang, Ting-Huan & Su, Hsin-Mei, 2010. "The substitutive effect of biofuels on fossil fuels in the lower and higher crude oil price periods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2807-2813.
    31. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    32. Maxwell, Simon & Fernando, Adrian, 1989. "Cash crops in developing countries: The issues, the facts, the policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(11), pages 1677-1708, November.
    33. Ftiti, Zied & Kablan, Sandrine & Guesmi, Khaled, 2016. "What can we learn about commodity and credit cycles? Evidence from African commodity-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-324.
    34. Teterin, Pavel & Brooks, Robert & Enders, Walter, 2016. "Smooth volatility shifts and spillovers in U.S. crude oil and corn futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 22-36.
    35. Jammazi, Rania & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "A wavelet-based nonlinear ARDL model for assessing the exchange rate pass-through to crude oil prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 173-187.
    36. Anuradha Mittal, 2009. "The 2008 food price crisis: Rethinking food security policies," G-24 Discussion Papers 56, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    37. Mensi, Walid & Tiwari, Aviral & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2017. "The dependence structure across oil, wheat, and corn: A wavelet-based copula approach using implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 122-139.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amrouk, El Mamoun & Grosche, Stephanie-Carolin & Heckelei, Thomas, 2017. "An analysis of the interdependence between cash crop and staple food futures prices," Discussion Papers 265665, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Correlation dynamics of crude oil with agricultural commodities: A comparison between energy and food crops," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 453-466.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Nasreen, Samia & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between international prices of energy, food, industry, agriculture and metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    6. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    8. Dahl, Roy Endré & Oglend, Atle & Yahya, Muhammad, 2020. "Dynamics of volatility spillover in commodity markets: Linking crude oil to agriculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    9. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    10. Grosche, Stephanie & Heckelei, Thomas, 2014. "Directional Volatility Spillovers between Agricultural, Crude Oil, Real Estate and other Financial Markets," Discussion Papers 166079, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    11. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    12. Maitra, Debasish & Guhathakurta, Kousik & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly relation between oil and commodities: An analysis of asymmetric volatility connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Gülin Vardar & Yener Coşkun & Tezer Yelkenci, 2018. "Shock transmission and volatility spillover in stock and commodity markets: evidence from advanced and emerging markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 231-288, August.
    14. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.
    15. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2017. "Spillovers between food and energy prices and structural breaks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2017. "Contagion, volatility persistence and volatility spill-overs: The case of energy markets during the European financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 217-227.
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Analyzing the time-frequency lead–lag relationship between oil and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 470-494.
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2022. "Spillover effects between commodity and stock markets: A SDSES approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Arfaoui Mongi & Haj Ali Dhouha, 2016. "Do Structural Breaks Affect Portfolio Designs and Hedging Strategies? International Evidence from Stock-Commodity Markets Linkages," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 252-270.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.