An Expost Economic Impact Assessment of the Intervention against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Nigeria
AbstractThe risk of spread of HPAI in Nigeria was derived by using a compartmental model to outline endemic and burn-out scenarios. Two paths, low and high mortality risks, were associated to each of the scenarios. The estimated risk parameters were then used to stochastically simulate the trajectory of the disease; without intervention and with an intervention. The intervention costs the country US$ 41 million obtained through a World Bank IDA loan of US$ 50million yearly disbursed over the 2006-2010 period. The key output variables (net social welfare gain – with incremental net benefits as proxy, disease cost, and benefit cost ratio) were estimated for each randomly drawn risk parameter. On average, the results show that such an intervention would make economic sense under the endemic scenario with high mortality. The discounted costs (12% discount rate) of the disease without intervention would have amounted to US$ 145 million in total over the 2006-2010 period. The model indicates that the intervention could possibly have generated cost savings amounting to US$ 63.7 million, incremental net benefit of US$22.2 million, and a benefit cost ratio at 1.75 over the five-year period considered.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil with number 125943.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Avian Influenza; Risk; Expected Social Welfare; Disease Costs; Incremental Benefit; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2012-07-08 (Africa)
- NEP-AGR-2012-07-08 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-08 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Bennett, 2003. "The 'Direct Costs'of Livestock Disease: The Development of a System of Models for the Analysis of 30 Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 55-71.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.