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Valuation of Carbon Forestry and the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Approach Using the Binomial Tree Method

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  • Tee, James
  • Scarpa, Riccardo
  • Marsh, Dan
  • Guthrie, Graeme

Abstract

Under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, new forests planted on/after 1st January 1990 can earn carbon credits. These credits have to be repaid upon forest harvest. This paper analyses the effects of this carbon scheme on the valuation of bareland, on which radiata pine is to be planted. NPV/LEV and Real Options methods are employed, assuming stochastic timber and carbon prices. Valuation increases significantly and rotation age is likely to be lengthened. We include a scenario analysis of potential implications of rotation age lengthening on carbon stock management in New Zealand.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil with number 123665.

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Date of creation: 21 May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:123665

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Keywords: Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS); Climate change policy; Kyoto Protocol; Real options; carbon forestry; tradable permit; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q23; Q28; Q54;

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  1. Graeme Guthrie & Dinesh Kumareswaran, 2009. "Carbon Subsidies, Taxes and Optimal Forest Management," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 275-293, June.
  2. Chladna, Zuzana, 2007. "Determination of optimal rotation period under stochastic wood and carbon prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 1031-1045, May.
  3. Miller, Robert A. & Voltaire, Karl, 1983. "A stochastic analysis of the tree paradigm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 371-386, September.
  4. Jasmina Behan & Kieran McQuinn & Maurice J. Roche, 2006. "Rural Land Use: Traditional Agriculture or Forestry?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(1), pages 112-123.
  5. Harry R Clarke & William J. Reed, 1989. "The Tree-Cutting Problem in a Stochastic Environment: The case of Age Dependent Growth," Working Papers 1989.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
  7. Duku-Kaakyire, Armstrong & Nanang, David M., 2004. "Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 539-552, October.
  8. Rajendra Prasad Khajuria & Shashi Kant & Susanna Laaksonen-Craig, 2009. "Valuation of Timber Harvesting Options Using a Contingent Claims Approach," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(4), pages 655-674.
  9. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
  10. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn, 2003. "An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 448-457.
  11. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
  12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  13. Olschewski, Roland & Benítez, Pablo C., 2010. "Optimizing joint production of timber and carbon sequestration of afforestation projects," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, January.
  14. Meade, Richard & Fiuza, Gabriel & Lu, Andrea & Boyle, Glenn & Evans, Lewis, 2009. "Forest and Forest Land Valuation: How to Value Forest and Forest Land to Include Carbon Costs and Benefits," 2009 Conference, August 27-28, 2009, Nelson, New Zealand 97127, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  15. Thomas A. Thomson, 1992. "Optimal Forest Rotation When Stumpage Prices Follow a Diffusion Process," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(3), pages 329-342.
  16. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
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