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On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation

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Author Info

  • Margaret Insley
  • Kimberly Rollins

Abstract

This article develops a two-factor real options model of the harvesting decision over infinite rotations assuming a known stochastic price process and using a rigorous Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman methodology. The harvesting problem is formulated as a linear complementarity problem that is solved numerically using a fully implicit finite difference method. This approach is contrasted with the Markov decision process models commonly used in the literature. The model is used to estimate the value of a representative stand in Ontario's boreal forest, both when there is complete flexibility regarding harvesting time and when regulations dictate the harvesting date. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00759.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 87 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 735-755

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:87:y:2005:i:3:p:735-755

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Cited by:
  1. Buongiorno, Joseph & Zhou, Mo, 2011. "Further generalization of Faustmann's formula for stochastic interest rates," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 248-257, August.
  2. Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2004. "Does Risk Aversion Accelerate Optimal Forest Rotation under Uncertainty?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1285, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Tee, James & Scarpa, Riccardo & Marsh, Dan & Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Valuation of Carbon Forestry and the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Approach Using the Binomial Tree Method," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 131066, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Wu, Feng & Guan, Zhengfei & Yu, Fan & Myers, Robert J., 2013. "The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1755-1770.
  5. Chen, Shan & Insley, Margaret, 2012. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 201-219.
  6. Thang, Tran Cong & Burton, Michael P. & Brennan, Donna C., 2009. "Optimal replanting and cutting rule for coffee farmers in Vietnam," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47638, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  7. Feng Song & Jinhua Zhao & Scott M. Swinton, 2011. "Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 764-779.
  8. Margaret Insley & Tony Wirjanto, 2008. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Working Papers 08002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
  9. Holopainen, Markus & Mäkinen, Antti & Rasinmäki, Jussi & Hyytiäinen, Kari & Bayazidi, Saeed & Pietilä, Ilona, 2010. "Comparison of various sources of uncertainty in stand-level net present value estimates," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 377-386, June.
  10. Insley, Margaret & Lei, Manle, 2007. "Hedges and Trees: Incorporating Fire Risk into Optimal Decisions in Forestry Using a No-Arbitrage Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December.
  11. Shackleton, Mark B. & Sødal, Sigbjørn, 2010. "Harvesting and recovery decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2533-2546, December.
  12. Zhou, Mo & Buongiorno, Joseph, 2011. "Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 402-410, June.
  13. Margaret Insley, 2013. "On the timing of non-renewable resource extraction with regime switching prices: an optimal stochastic control approach," Working Papers 1302, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.
  14. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Taxation and rotation age under stochastic forest stand value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 113-127, July.
  15. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Optimal harvesting under resource stock and price uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2461-2485, July.
  16. Tee, James & Scarpa, Riccardo & Marsh, Dan & Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "A Binomial Tree Approach to Valuing Fixed Rotation Forests and Flexible Rotation Forests Under a Mean Reverting Timber Price Process," 2010 Conference, August 26-27, 2010, Nelson, New Zealand 96836, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  17. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), December.

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