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Exchange Rate Misalignment and Its Effects on Agricultural Producer Support Estimates (PSEs) in India

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  • Cheng, Fuzhi
  • Orden, David

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the exchange rate misalignment on the agricultural Producer Support Estimates (PSEs) in India. Based on various time series techniques, the equilibrium exchange rate of the Indian rupee and the corresponding misalignment are estimated and applied to the calculations of the PSEs. Our results show that the indirect effect from exchange rate misalignment on India's agriculture has either amplified or counteracted the direct effect from sectoral-specific policies. The indirect effect of exchange rate overvaluation has potentially taxed the agricultural sector in India during the periods leading up to the financial crisis. However, the magnitude of these indirect effects becomes smaller in the later periods when the actual exchange rate moves closer to its equilibrium value.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25299
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia with number 25299.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae06:25299

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Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade;

References

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  1. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India?," IMF Working Papers 00/157, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Mullen, Kathleen & Sun, Dongsheng & Orden, David & Gulati, Ashok, 2004. "Producer Support Estimates (PSEs) for agriculture in developing countries," MTID discussion papers 74, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Kohli, Renu, 2003. "Real exchange rate stabilisation and managed floating: exchange rate policy in India, 1993-2001," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 369-387, June.
  4. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
  5. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
  6. Mullen, Kathleen & Orden, David & Gulati, Ashok, 2005. "Agricultural policies in India," MTID discussion papers 82, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. William M. Liefert & David J. Sedik & Robert B. Koopman & Eugenia Serova & Olga Melyukhina, 1996. "Producer Subsidy Equivalents for Russian Agriculture: Estimation and Interpretation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 792-798.
  8. Matthew Harley, 1996. "Use of the Producer Subsidy Equivalent as a Measure of Support to Agriculture in Transition Economies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 799-804.
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