Post-conflict aid, real exchange rate adjustment, and catch-up growth
Abstract
Post-conflict countries receive substantial aid flows after the start of peace. While post-conflict countries'capacity to absorb aid (that is, the quality of their policies and institutions) is built up only gradually after the onset of peace, the evidence suggests that aid tends to peak immediately after peace is attained and decline thereafter. Aid composition broadly reflects post-conflict priorities, with large parts of aid financing social expenditure and infrastructure investment. Aid has significant short-term effects on the real exchange rate (RER), as inferred from the behavior of RER in the world. While moderate RER overvaluation is observed in post-conflicts, it cannot be traced down to the aid flows. The empirical evidence on world growth reveals new findings about the pattern of catch-up growth during post-conflicts and the role of key growth determinants on post-conflict growth. Aid is an important determinant of growth, both generally and more strongly during post-conflict periods. Because RER misalignment reduces growth, RER overvaluation during post-conflicts reduces catch-up growth. Aid and RER overvaluation combined also lower growth. But the negative growth effect of RER overvaluation declines with financial development.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4187.Length:
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4187
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Email:
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: Social Conflict and Violence; Economic Theory&Research; Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness; Post Conflict Reintegration; Achieving Shared Growth;This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2007-04-09 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2007-04-09 (Financial Development & Growth)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-of-Trade Shocks - The Experience of the Oil-Exporting Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/134, International Monetary Fund.
- Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Baccheta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006.
"Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
06-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," NBER Working Papers 12117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5629, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 06.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Gavin, Michael, 1990. "Structural adjustment to a terms of trade disturbance : The role of relative prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 217-243, May.
- Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996.
"Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions,"
Papers
536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995.
"Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models,"
IFS Working Papers
W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Elbadawi, Ibrahim A & Soto, Raimundo, 1997.
"Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 74-120, Supplemen.
- Ibrahim A. Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, . "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Sahara Africa and Other Developing Countries," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv093, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
- Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
- Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
- Gilbert,Christopher L. & Vines,David (ed.), 2006. "The World Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521029018.
- Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 6017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2002.
"Aid allocation and poverty reduction,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1475-1500, September.
- Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 1999. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2041, The World Bank.
- Taye Mengistae & Catherine Pattillo, 2004.
"Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 6.
- Catherine A. Pattillo & Taye Mengistae, 2002. "Export Orientation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/89, International Monetary Fund.
- Etienne B. Yehoue & Gilles J. Dufrénot, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/164, International Monetary Fund.
- Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2002.
"Aid, policy, and growth in post-conflict societies,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2902, The World Bank.
- Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2004. "Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1125-1145, October.
- Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
- David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000.
"Aid, Policies, and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
- Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 1997. "Aid, policies, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1777, The World Bank.
- Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
- Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
- Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
- Christophe Rault & Imed Drine, 2004.
"On the long-run determinants of real exchange rates for developing countries : Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
403, Econometric Society.
- Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2003. "On the long-run determinants of real exchange rates for developing countries : Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-571, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004.
"Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth,"
Working Papers
44, Center for Global Development.
- Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, EconWPA.
- Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- AfDB, . "Eminent Speakers Series - Sharing Visions of Africa’s Development, Volume I," Eminent Speakers Series, African Development Bank, number 89, 5.
- Gupta, Sanjeev, 2008. "Enhancing Effective Utilization of Aid in Fragile States," Working Papers RP2008/07, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Pablo Selaya & Rainer Thiele, 2008. "Aid and Sectoral Labour Productivity," Kiel Working Papers 1468, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4187For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

