IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea14/170416.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases With Application to Rating Dairy Margin Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Bozic, Marin
  • Newton, John
  • Thraen, Cameron S.
  • Gould, Brian W.

Abstract

We develop a new parametric bootstrap-based statistical test for presence of futures price and options-based implied volatility biases. The new test is applicable to data with overlapping prediction horizons. Information on anticipated volatility embedded in options prices is explicitly used when testing for futures price biases. Our method is well adapted to analysis of fast changing commodity markets as it does not rely on asymptotic theory and does not require a time series spanning several decades. We apply the new test to investigate if futures and options biases can explain very low loss ratios exhibited by USDA’s Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Cattle insurance program.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2014. "Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases With Application to Rating Dairy Margin Insurance," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170416, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170416
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/170416/files/Bozic_%20Newton_%20Thraen%20and%20Gould%20_2014_%20Parametric%20Bootstrap%20Tests%20for%20Futures%20Price%20and%20Implied%20Volatility%20Biases%20-%20AAEA%202014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.170416?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thorsten M. Egelkraut & Philip Garcia & Bruce J. Sherrick, 2007. "The Term Structure of Implied Forward Volatility: Recovery and Informational Content in the Corn Options Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 1-11.
    2. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-474, October.
    3. Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen & Josh Phelan, 2007. "How do you straddle hogs and pigs? Ask the Greeks!," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 511-520.
    4. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2005. "Option pricing: Real and risk-neutral distributions," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    5. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399.
    6. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
    7. J. Frank & P. Garcia, 2009. "Time-varying risk premium: further evidence in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 715-725.
    8. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    9. Gould, Brian W. & Cabrera, Victor E., 2011. "USDA's Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy: What Is It and How Can It Be Used for Risk Management," Staff Paper Series 562, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    10. Robert W. Kolb, 1992. "Is normal backwardation normal?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 75-91, February.
    11. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    12. Richard Deaves & Itzhak Krinsky, 1995. "Do futures prices for commodities embody risk premiums?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 637-648, September.
    13. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Newton & Cameron S. Thraen & Marin Bozic, 2016. "Evaluating Policy Design Choices for the Margin Protection Program for Dairy Producers: An Expected Indemnity Approach," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 712-730.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases with Application to Rating Livestock Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle," Staff Papers 135077, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L Mallory, 2018. "Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 121-142.
    3. Marin Bozic, 2010. "Pricing Options on Commodity Futures: The Role of Weather and Storage," Working Papers 1003, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    4. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    5. J. Frank & P. Garcia, 2009. "Time-varying risk premium: further evidence in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 715-725.
    6. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    7. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael K. Adjemian & Valentina G. Bruno & Michel A. Robe, 2020. "Incorporating Uncertainty into USDA Commodity Price Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 696-712, March.
    9. Wael Bahsoun & Pawel Góra & Silvia Mayoral & Manuel Morales, 2006. "Random Dynamics and Finance: Constructing Implied Binomial Trees from a Predetermined Stationary Den," Faculty Working Papers 13/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    10. An N. Q. Cao & Michel A. Robe, 2022. "Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 250-275, February.
    11. Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    13. Jeffrey A Frankel & Andrew K Rose, 2010. "Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Nicole M. Moran & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Who Wins and Who Loses? Trader Returns and Risk Premiums in Agricultural Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 611-652, December.
    16. Ai, Chunrong & Chatrath, Arjun & Song, Frank, 2007. "A semiparametric estimation of the optimal hedge ratio," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 366-381, May.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2014. "Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-112.
    18. Guenter Franke & James Huang & Richard Stapleton, 2006. "Two-dimensional risk-neutral valuation relationships for the pricing of options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 213-237, November.
    19. Chad E. Hart & Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Na Jin, 2016. "Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 707-725.
    20. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 93(4), pages 3-46, July-Augu.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.