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Can the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) help to reduce food price volatility?

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  • Brockhaus, Jan
  • Kalkuhl, Matthias

Abstract

We investigate to which extent the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), set up by the G20 in 2011, can help to reduce food price volatility. Linking uncertainty about fundamentals and volatility in a theoretical model, we show that the uncertainty provides an upper limit for the volatility. In our qualitative analysis we argue that AMIS may help to foster desired price changes and to prevent undesired price changes but at the same time its success in doing so has been limited until now because countries remain reluctant to share their data and the private sector remains largely excluded. Our quantitative analysis shows that the estimations of fundamentals from different sources deviate a lot, especially for stocks. Over time, different estimations seem to comove rather than to converge (for the marketing year 2012/13). With the help of a panel regression we find correlations between food price volatility and oil price volatility, stock-to-use ratios, productions shocks, and uncertainty of the fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Brockhaus, Jan & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "Can the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) help to reduce food price volatility?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170391, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170391
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George Bittlingmayer, 1998. "Output, Stock Volatility, and Political Uncertainty in a Natural Experiment: Germany, 1880-1940," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2243-2257, December.
    2. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    3. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
    4. Ivo Arnold & Evert Vrugt, 2008. "Fundamental uncertainty and stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1425-1440.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade;
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