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Pricing Weather Insurance with a Random Strike Price: An Application to the Ontario Ice Wine Harvest

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Author Info
Turvey, Calum
Weersink, Alfons

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Abstract

Interest is growing in weather insurance within the agricultural sector but its use has been limited by the difficulty in defining the appropriate weather event and the lack of agreement on how to price the product. In this paper we develop a new insurance pricing method for weather insurance under situations where volume returns depend not only on the occurrence of the weather event, but also its timing. The method is applied to the pricing of weather insurance for ice wine in the Niagara Peninsula of southern Ontario. Because the harvest quantity of grapes for ice wine degrades over time, the strike value on the weather event measured as harvestable hours is random. This random strike, we developed a systematic approach to valuing the insurance using first, the single index model to capture inter-temporal covariance effects, and then a Monte Carlo simulation protocol to estimate the premium. While this study investigated a model unique to ice wine production in particular, the ideas can be extended to a number of other agricultural situations in which weather affects critical timing in the production process.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19255
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19255.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19255

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Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Skees, Jerry & Varangis, Panos & Larson, Donald & Siegel, Paul, 2002. "Can financial markets be tapped to help poor people cope with weather risks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2812, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Rubinstein, Ariel & Yaari, Menahem E., 1983. "Repeated insurance contracts and moral hazard," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Timothy J. Richards & Mark R. Manfredo & Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1005-1017, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Martin, Steven W. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2001. "Developing And Pricing Precipitation Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," Working Papers 28536, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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