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Modeling and Pricing Rain Risk

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  • Musshoff, Oliver
  • Odening, Martin
  • Xu, Wei

Abstract

In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them Burn Analysis, Index Value Simulation and Daily Simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to assess the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function, we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are remotely located from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences may occur between the pricing methods. We identify the strengths and weaknesses of the pricing methods and give some recommendations for their applications. Our results are relevant for producers as well as for potential sellers of weather derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Xu, Wei, 2006. "Modeling and Pricing Rain Risk," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25386, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae06:25386
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.25386
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/25386/files/cp062911.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," Working Papers 28536, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management.
    2. Calum G. Turvey, 2001. "Weather Derivatives for Specific Event Risks in Agriculture," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 333-351.
    3. Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1005-1017.
    4. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Carter, Chris & Crean, Jason & Kingwell, Ross S. & Hertzler, Greg, 2006. "Managing and Sharing the Risks of Drought in Australia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25319, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Heidelbach, Olaf, 2007. "Efficiency of selected risk management instruments: An empirical analysis of risk reduction in Kazakhstani crop production," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 40, number 92323.

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