IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aah/create/2020-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Asset Allocation for Commodity Sovereign Wealth Funds

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso A. Irarrazabal

    (BI Norwegian Business School)

  • Lin Ma

    (CICERO, Center for International Climate Research)

  • Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez

    (Aarhus University, CREATES and Danish Finance Institute)

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic asset allocation problem faced by an infinitively-lived commodity-based sovereign wealth fund under incomplete markets. Since the non-tradable stream of commodity revenues is finite, the optimal consumption and investment strategies are time dependent. Using data from the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, we find that the optimal demand for equity should decrease gradually from 60 to 40 percent over the next 60 years. However, the solution is particularly sensitive to the correlation between oil and stock price changes. We also estimate wealth-equivalent welfare losses, relative to the optimal rule, when following alternative suboptimal investment rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Lin Ma & Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2020. "Optimal Asset Allocation for Commodity Sovereign Wealth Funds," CREATES Research Papers 2020-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2020-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/20/rp20_10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    4. Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2016. "Optimal consumption and savings with stochastic income and recursive utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 292-331.
    5. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    6. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    7. Deepa D. Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2021. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 214-253, April.
    8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1989. "Portfolio choice with non-expected utility in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 313-317, October.
    9. Gomes, Francisco J., 2007. "Exploiting short-run predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1427-1440, May.
    10. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2017. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," NBER Working Papers 23732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1997. "Market Frictions, Savings Behavior, And Portfolio Choice," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 76-101, January.
    12. Ton S van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2013. "Managing and Harnessing Volatile Oil Windfalls," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 130-167, April.
    13. Munk, Claus & Sørensen, Carsten, 2010. "Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 433-462, June.
    14. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long‐Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    15. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    16. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
    18. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    19. Cochrane, John H, 1989. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 319-337, June.
    20. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Gary Gorton & Geert Rouwenhorst, 2015. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures Ten Years Later," NBER Working Papers 21243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    22. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    23. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    24. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    25. Trond Døskeland, 2007. "Strategic asset allocation for a country: the Norwegian case," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 167-201, June.
    26. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    27. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
    28. Duffie, Darrell & Fleming, Wendell & Soner, H. Mete & Zariphopoulou, Thaleia, 1997. "Hedging in incomplete markets with HARA utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 753-782, May.
    29. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2011. "Oil sensitivity and its asymmetric impact on the stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 168-174.
    30. Gary Chamberlain & Keisuke Hirano, 1999. "Predictive Distributions based on Longitudinal Earnings Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 211-242.
    31. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    32. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:55-56:p:08 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Snorre Lindset & Knut Anton Mork, 2019. "Risk Taking and Fiscal Smoothing with Sovereign Wealth Funds in Advanced Economies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, January.
    34. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
    35. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Knut Anton Mork & Haakon Andreas Trønnes & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, 2022. "Capital Preservation and Current Spending with Sovereign Wealth Funds and Endowment Funds: A simulation Study," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Mork, Knut Anton & Harang, Fabian Andsem & Trønnes, Haakon Andreas & Bjerketvedt, Vegard Skonseng, 2023. "Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Weiss, Farina, 2022. "Bequest motives in consumption-portfolio decisions with recursive utility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    3. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    4. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    5. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2005. "Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle in the Presence of 'Trickle Down' Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 11247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mehlkopf, R.J., 2011. "Risk sharing with the unborn," Other publications TiSEM fe8a8df6-455f-4624-af10-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Park, Seyoung & Zhao, Huainan, 2020. "Optimal retirement with borrowing constraints and forced unemployment risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 25-39.
    8. Hui-Ju Tsai & Yangru Wu, 2015. "Optimal portfolio choice with asset return predictability and nontradable labor income," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 215-249, July.
    9. Munk, Claus, 2020. "A mean-variance benchmark for household portfolios over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Letendre, Marc-Andre & Smith, Gregor W., 2001. "Precautionary saving and portfolio allocation: DP by GMM," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 197-215, August.
    11. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
    12. Hubar, Sylwia & Koulovatianos, Christos & Li, Jian, 2020. "The role of labor-income risk in household risk-taking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Andreas Fagereng & Charles Gottlieb & Luigi Guiso, 2017. "Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 705-750, April.
    14. Fischer, Marcel & Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2217-2240.
    15. Moutanabbir, Khouzeima & Noureldin, Diaa, 2020. "Optimal asset allocation and consumption rules for commodity-based sovereign wealth funds," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 708-730.
    16. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Koo, Hyeng Keun & Park, Seyoung, 2019. "Optimal consumption and investment with insurer default risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 44-56.
    17. Castaneda, Pablo & Rudolph, Heinz P., 2011. "Upgrading investment regulations in second pillar pension systems : a proposal for Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5775, The World Bank.
    18. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2016. "Long‐Run Consumption Risk and Asset Allocation under Recursive Utility and Rational Inattention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 325-362, March.
    19. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascal J. Maenhout, 2001. "Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 439-482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Alain Bensoussan & Bong-Gyu Jang & Seyoung Park, 2016. "Unemployment Risks and Optimal Retirement in an Incomplete Market," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1015-1032, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal asset allocation; sovereign wealth fund; commodities; income risk; suboptimal investments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:create:2020-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.