Bias-correction in vector autoregressive models: A simulation study
AbstractWe analyze and compare the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in vector autoregressions. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study, we show that this simple and easy-to-use analytical bias formula compares very favorably to the more standard but also more computer intensive bootstrap bias-correction method, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. Both methods yield a notable improvement over both OLS and a recently proposed WLS estimator. We also investigate the properties of an iterative scheme when applying the analytical bias formula, and we ?find that this can imply slightly better fi?nite-sample properties for very small sample sizes while for larger sample sizes there is no gain by iterating. Finally, we also pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space during the process of correcting for bias.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2011-18.
Date of creation: 13 May 2011
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Bias reduction; VAR model; analytical bias formula; bootstrap; iteration; Yule-Walker; non-stationary system; skewed and fat-tailed data.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-05-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2011-05-24 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-ORE-2011-05-24 (Operations Research)
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- Hendrik Kaufmannz & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2012.
"Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-253.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2008. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-27, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A. M. Robert & Trenkler, Carsten, 2013. "Bootstrap Co-integration Rank Testing: The Effect of Bias-Correcting Parameter Estimates," Working Papers 32993, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
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