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Manuel González-Astudillo
(Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo)

Personal Details

First Name:Manuel
Middle Name:
Last Name:Gonzalez-Astudillo
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pgo189
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
https://sites.google.com/site/manuelgonzalezastudillo/home
Twitter: @manugonzalez76
Terminal Degree:2012 Department of Economics; Indiana University (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

(70%) Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies Section
Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/research/rsmaqs.htm
RePEc:edi:mqfrbus (more details at EDIRC)

(30%) Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Humanísticas
Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL)

Guayaquil, Ecuador
http://www.fcsh.espol.edu.ec/
RePEc:edi:feespec (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Rakeen Tanvir, 2023. "Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Avellán, Guillermo & González-Astudillo, Manuel & Salcedo, Juan José, 2020. "A Streamlined Procedure to Construct a Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index with an Application to the Ecuadorian Economy," MPRA Paper 102593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2020. "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. García-Albán, Freddy & Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel & Vera-Albán, Cristhian, 2020. "Good Luck or Good Policy? An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Revenue and Fiscal Policy Shocks: The Case of Ecuador," MPRA Paper 102592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Diego Vilán, 2019. "A New Procedure for Generating the Stochastic Simulations in FRB/US," FEDS Notes 2019-03-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "Dolarización: efectos y riesgos en el caso ecuatoriano [Dollarization: effects and risks in the Ecuadorian case]," MPRA Paper 98250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Daniel Baquero & Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador : Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area : Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2014. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-97, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2011. "Policy Rule Coefficients Driven by Latent Factors: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Endowment Economy," MPRA Paper 29976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2009. "An Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Recursive Preferences at Play," MPRA Paper 19153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. González, Manuel, 2004. "La Curva de Retorno y el Modelo C-CAPM: Evidencia para Chile," MPRA Paper 309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Orus, Juan & González, Manuel, 2004. "Inflation-Proof Credits and Financial Instruments. Making the Fisher Hypothesis a Reality," MPRA Paper 343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. González, Manuel & Wong, Sara, 2004. "Elasticidades de Sustitución de Importaciones para Ecuador," MPRA Paper 306, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2005.

Articles

  1. Manuel González-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2022. "When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2417-2460, May.
  2. Guillermo Avellán & Manuel González-Astudillo & Juan José Salcedo Cruz, 2022. "Measuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1517-1542, April.
  3. García-Albán, Freddy & González-Astudillo, Manuel & Vera-Avellán, Cristhian, 2021. "Good policy or good luck? Analyzing the effects of fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks in Ecuador," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  4. Manuel González‐Astudillo, 2019. "Estimating the U.S. output gap with state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 795-810, August.
  5. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  6. González-Astudillo, Manuel & Baquero, Daniel, 2019. "A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 250-263.
  7. Manuel Gonzalez‐Astudillo, 2018. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 115-154, February.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2020. "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    3. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  2. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Diego Vilán, 2019. "A New Procedure for Generating the Stochastic Simulations in FRB/US," FEDS Notes 2019-03-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Turunen Harry & Zhutova Anastasia & Lemoine Matthieu, 2023. "Stochastic Simulation of the FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Uncertainty around Conditional Forecasts," Working papers 920, Banque de France.

  3. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area : Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.

  4. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

  5. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Disinflation and reliability of underlying inflation measures," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps44, Bank of Russia.
    2. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2020. "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    4. Max Soloschenko & Enzo Weber, 2021. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 109-128, November.
    5. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Casey, Eddie, 2020. "Do macroeconomic forecasters use macroeconomics to forecast?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1439-1453.
    7. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
    8. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2018. "Unemployment or credit: Which one holds the potential? Results for a small open economy with a low degree of financialization," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 649-664.
    9. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1167-1188, September.
    10. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella, 2020. "Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  6. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2014. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-97, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Nemla Ali & Coskun Akdeniz, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Countries: Is there an Augmented Nonlinear Taylor Rule?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5965, CESifo.
    2. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2022. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2020. "Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2015. "Monetary-fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," Discussion Papers 42/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2020. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Discussion Papers 51/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2021. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," IMFS Working Paper Series 160, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    9. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Rakeen Tanvir, 2023. "Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  7. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Kustina & Junedi, 2017. "ASEAN Economic Community Impact on SMSs: A Regional Case Study," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 432-438.
    2. Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2023. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies Interactions in Nigeria and South Africa: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 21-31, September.
    3. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    4. V.A. Slepov & V.K. Burlachkov & T.P. Danko & M.E. Kosov & I.I. Volkov & N.V. Ivolgina & V.D. Sekerin, 2017. "Model for Integrating Monetary and Fiscal Policies to Stimulate Economic Growth and Sustainable Debt Dynamics," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4A), pages 457-470.
    5. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata, 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 155-172, February.
    6. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Manuel Gonzalez‐Astudillo, 2018. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 115-154, February.
    8. Tryphonides, Andreas, 2018. "Learning from Errors: The case of monetary and fiscal policy regimes," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-022, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    9. Yoosoon Chang & Boreum Kwak, 2017. "U.S. Monetary-Fiscal Regime Changes in the Presence of Endogenous Feedback in Policy Rules," CAEPR Working Papers 2017-016, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    10. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Iwata, Yasuharu & Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2020. "Fiscal Adjustments and Debt-Dependent Multipliers: Evidence from the U.S. Time Series," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-103, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.

  8. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2009. "An Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Recursive Preferences at Play," MPRA Paper 19153, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  9. González, Manuel, 2004. "La Curva de Retorno y el Modelo C-CAPM: Evidencia para Chile," MPRA Paper 309, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

Articles

  1. Guillermo Avellán & Manuel González-Astudillo & Juan José Salcedo Cruz, 2022. "Measuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1517-1542, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Ogbuabor, Jonathan E. & Ukwueze, Ezebuilo R. & Mba, Ifeoma C. & Ojonta, Obed I. & Orji, Anthony, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).

  2. García-Albán, Freddy & González-Astudillo, Manuel & Vera-Avellán, Cristhian, 2021. "Good policy or good luck? Analyzing the effects of fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks in Ecuador," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Díaz-Kovalenko, Igor E. & Torres, José L., 2022. "Oil price shocks, government revenues and public investment: The case of Ecuador," MPRA Paper 112268, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 2022.

  3. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. González-Astudillo, Manuel & Baquero, Daniel, 2019. "A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 250-263.

    Cited by:

    1. Luciano Campos & Danilo Leiva-León & Steven Zapata- Álvarez, 2022. "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks," Borradores de Economia 1201, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    4. Guillermo Avellán & Manuel González-Astudillo & Juan José Salcedo Cruz, 2022. "Measuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1517-1542, April.

  5. Manuel Gonzalez‐Astudillo, 2018. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 115-154, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

Access and download statistics for all items

Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 16 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (13) 2006-10-21 2009-12-19 2011-04-16 2013-09-25 2013-10-02 2014-12-24 2018-07-16 2018-07-23 2020-02-10 2020-09-14 2020-09-14 2020-10-26 2023-12-11. Author is listed
  2. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (7) 2009-12-19 2011-04-16 2013-09-25 2013-10-02 2014-12-24 2020-10-26 2023-12-11. Author is listed
  3. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (4) 2006-12-04 2013-09-25 2013-10-02 2023-12-11
  4. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (3) 2017-01-01 2017-05-14 2018-07-23
  5. NEP-PBE: Public Economics (2) 2013-09-25 2013-10-02
  6. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (1) 2014-12-24
  7. NEP-EEC: European Economics (1) 2018-07-23
  8. NEP-ENE: Energy Economics (1) 2020-09-14
  9. NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (1) 2006-10-21
  10. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (1) 2018-07-16
  11. NEP-LAM: Central and South America (1) 2013-09-25
  12. NEP-LTV: Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty (1) 2013-09-25
  13. NEP-NEU: Neuroeconomics (1) 2013-09-25

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