IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v65y2020ics0164070420301658.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Zuber, Christopher

Abstract

Economic crises lead to lower potential output (PO) estimates, but little is known about which components of PO are revised. Our paper answers the questions of how much, how fast, and how persistently estimates of the capital stock, of trend labor, and of trend total factor productivity are revised downwards after major economic crises. It shows that revisions to different components of PO contributed equally to the substantial overall decline in estimated PO levels. Revisions of trend labor are predominantly driven by revisions of the NAWRU. The heterogeneity of revisions across EU countries after the Great Recession is large, suggesting that different policies are needed to bring countries back to their previous growth paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:65:y:2020:i:c:s0164070420301658
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070420301658
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103239?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-778, September.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    4. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    5. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    7. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2017. "Effects of Financial Crises on Productivity, Capital and Employment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 90-112, February.
    8. Robert E. Hall, 2015. "Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 71-128.
    9. Robert F. Martin & Teyanna Munyan & Beth Anne Wilson, 2014. "Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?," IFDP Notes 2014-11-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi & Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Do large recessions reduce output permanently?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 516-519.
    11. Stadler, G. W., 1986. "Real versus monetary business cycle theory and the statistical characteristics of output fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 51-54.
    12. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Benati, Luca, 2012. "Estimating the financial crisis’ impact on potential output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 113-119.
    14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    16. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    17. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    19. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    21. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    22. Julia Lendvai & Matteo Salto & Anna Thum-Thysen, 2015. "Structural unemployment vs. NAWRU: implications for the assessment of the cyclical position and the fiscal stance," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 552, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    23. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2016. "Real-Time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 785-791, October.
    24. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    25. Jane Haltmaier, 2012. "Do recessions affect potential output?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1986. "Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 235-239, May.
    27. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2018. "Comparing Measures of Potential Output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(4), pages 297-316.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Servaas Storm, 2022. "Inflation in the Time of Corona and War: The plight of the developing economies," Working Papers Series inetwp192, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    2. Servaas Storm, 2021. "Labour's loss: Why macroeconomics matters," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(299), pages 249-285.
    3. Larch, Martin & Claeys, Peter & Van Der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "The scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment," EIB Working Papers 2022/14, European Investment Bank (EIB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2017. "The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168180, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Jonas Dovern & Christopher Zuber, 2020. "Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1431-1466, October.
    3. Patrik Barisic & Tibor Kovac, 2022. "The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 43-81.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    7. Sohei Kaihatsu & Maiko Koga & Tomoya Sakata & Naoko Hara, 2019. "Interaction between Business Cycles and Economic Growth," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 37, pages 99-126, November.
    8. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2017. "On The Interaction Between Economic Growth And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 982-1022, June.
    9. Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària & Luis G. Hernández‐Román & Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua, 2021. "Recessions and potential GDP: The case of Mexico," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 179-195, April.
    10. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. de Ridder, Maarten, 2016. "Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    13. Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad & Pål Ulvedal & Antoine Lepetit, 2020. "Estimating hysteresis effects," Working Paper 2020/13, Norges Bank.
    14. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    15. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2023. "Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence, and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2187-2213, December.
    16. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Olivier J. Blanchard, 2017. "Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," NBER Working Papers 24057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    19. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Kilic Celik,Sinem & Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa, 2020. "Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9411, The World Bank.
    20. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; Trend; Output gap; Great Recession; European Commission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:65:y:2020:i:c:s0164070420301658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.