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Direct Macroeconomic Links Between Selected East Asian Economies And The Us? An Empirical Analysis

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  • EU CHYE TAN

    (Faculty of Economics & Administration, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

Abstract

This paper attempts to establish whether there exists any direct macroeconomic linkages between some East Asian (EA) countries on the one hand and the US on the other hand, based upon quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) series spanning from the early 1990s. Cointegration, Granger causal relations and contemporaneous correlations of output shocks are explored. Contrary toa prioriexpectations, the empirical evidence suggests no direct linkages of these economies to the US, with the exception of the Malaysian economy. In the case of Malaysia, only a Granger causal relation from the US is found. All this would allude to the ability of these EA economies save one to grow independently of the US, barring a global economic crisis such as the recent one triggered off by sub-prime loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Direct Macroeconomic Links Between Selected East Asian Economies And The Us? An Empirical Analysis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(03), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:57:y:2012:i:03:n:s0217590812500191
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590812500191
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Marcus Noland, 1995. "China and the International Economic System," Working Paper Series WP95-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
    5. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Dées, Stéphane, 2007. "The transmission of US cyclical developments to the rest of the world," Working Paper Series 798, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; cointegration; causality; F41; F43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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