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Detecting And Measuring Financial Cycles In Heterogeneous Agents Models: An Empirical Analysis

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  • FILIPPO GUSELLA

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Firenze, Italy2Complexity Lab in Economics (CLE), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy)

Abstract

This paper proposes a macroeconometric analysis to depict and measure possible financial cycles that emerge due to the dynamic interaction between heterogeneous market participants. We consider two-type heterogeneous speculative agents: Trend followers tend to follow the price trend while contrarians go against the wind. As agents’ beliefs are unobserved variables, we construct a state-space model where heuristics are considered as unobserved state components and from which the conditions for endogenous cycles can be mathematically derived and empirically tested. Further, we specifically measure the length of endogenous financial cycles. The model is estimated using the equity price index for the 1960–2020 period for the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, and the USA. We find empirical evidence of endogenous financial cycles for all countries, with the highest frequencies in the USA and the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Gusella, 2022. "Detecting And Measuring Financial Cycles In Heterogeneous Agents Models: An Empirical Analysis," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02n03), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:25:y:2022:i:02n03:n:s0219525922400021
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219525922400021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous agent models; heterogeneous expectations; endogenous cycles; state-space model; period of cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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