IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/wirecc/v11y2020i2ne625.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics

Author

Listed:
  • Morgan Bazilian
  • Michael Bradshaw
  • Johannes Gabriel
  • Andreas Goldthau
  • Kirsten Westphal

Abstract

This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short‐term, protectionist, and self‐interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly. This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Scenario Development The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Future of Global Energy

Suggested Citation

  • Morgan Bazilian & Michael Bradshaw & Johannes Gabriel & Andreas Goldthau & Kirsten Westphal, 2020. "Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:11:y:2020:i:2:n:e625
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.625
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/wcc.625?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scholten, Daniel & Bosman, Rick, 2016. "The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 273-283.
    2. O'Sullivan, Meghan & Overland, Indra & Sandalow, David, 2017. "The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy," Working Paper Series rwp17-027, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Bentham, Jeremy, 2014. "The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 87-92.
    4. Andreas Goldthau & Kirsten Westphal, 2019. "Why the Global Energy Transition Does Not Mean the End of the Petrostate," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 10(2), pages 279-283, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Apergi, Maria & Zimmermann, Eva & Weko, Silvia & Lilliestam, Johan, 2023. "Is renewable energy technology trade more or less conflictive than other trade?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Karol Król & Anita Kukulska-Kozieł & Katarzyna Cegielska & Tomasz Salata & Józef Hernik, 2023. "Turbulent Events Effects: Socioeconomic Changes in Southern Poland as Captured by the LSED Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-24, December.
    3. Andreas Goldthau & Nick Sitter, 2021. "Horses for courses. The roles of IPE and Global Public Policy in global energy research [The profits of power: Commerce and realpolitik in Eurasia]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 40(4), pages 467-483.
    4. Gavin Bridge & Ludger Gailing, 2020. "New energy spaces: Towards a geographical political economy of energy transition," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(6), pages 1037-1050, September.
    5. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    6. Marco Siddi & Federica Prandin, 2023. "Governing the EU’s Energy Crisis: The European Commission’s Geopolitical Turn and its Pitfalls," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(4), pages 286-296.
    7. Chien, FengSheng & Vu, Trong Lam & Hien Phan, Thi Thu & Van Nguyen, Sang & Viet Anh, Nguyen Ho & Ngo, Thanh Quang, 2023. "Zero-carbon energy transition in ASEAN countries: The role of carbon finance, carbon taxes, and sustainable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 561-569.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vakulchuk, Roman & Overland, Indra & Scholten, Daniel, 2020. "Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Overland, Indra & Juraev, Javlon & Vakulchuk, Roman, 2022. "Are renewable energy sources more evenly distributed than fossil fuels?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 379-386.
    3. Sannamari Pilpola & Vahid Arabzadeh & Jani Mikkola & Peter D. Lund, 2019. "Analyzing National and Local Pathways to Carbon-Neutrality from Technology, Emissions, and Resilience Perspectives—Case of Finland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Scholten, Daniel & Bazilian, Morgan & Overland, Indra & Westphal, Kirsten, 2020. "The geopolitics of renewables: New board, new game," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Halil Burak Sakal, 2021. "Turkey’s energy trade relations with Europe: The role of institutions and energy market," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(7), pages 1243-1274, November.
    6. Piotr Siemiątkowski & Patryk Tomaszewski & Joanna Marszałek-Kawa & Janusz Gierszewski, 2020. "The Financing of Renewable Energy Sources and the Level of Sustainable Development of Poland’s Provinces in the Area of Environmental Order," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Gavin Bridge & Ludger Gailing, 2020. "New energy spaces: Towards a geographical political economy of energy transition," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(6), pages 1037-1050, September.
    8. Iwona Bąk & Anna Spoz & Magdalena Zioło & Marek Dylewski, 2021. "Dynamic Analysis of the Similarity of Objects in Research on the Use of Renewable Energy Resources in European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-24, July.
    9. Clement Bonnet & Samuel Carcanague & Emmanuel Hache & Gondia Seck & Marine Simoën, 2019. "Vers une Géopolitique de l'énergie plus complexe ? Une analyse prospective tridimensionnelle de la transition énergétique," Working Papers hal-02971706, HAL.
    10. Antonia Cevallos-Escandón & Edgar Antonio Barragan-Escandón & Esteban Zalamea-León & Xavier Serrano-Guerrero & Julio Terrados-Cepeda, 2023. "Assessing the Feasibility of Hydrogen and Electric Buses for Urban Public Transportation using Rooftop Integrated Photovoltaic Energy in Cuenca Ecuador," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-14, July.
    11. León-Vielma, J.E. & Ramos-Real, F.J. & Hernández Hernández, J.F., 2022. "The collapse of Venezuela's electricity sector from an energy governance perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. Ghanbari, Saeed & Mackay, Eric J. & Heinemann, Niklas & Alcalde, Juan & James, Alan & Allen, Michael J., 2020. "Impact of CO2 mixing with trapped hydrocarbons on CO2 storage capacity and security: A case study from the Captain aquifer (North Sea)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    13. Elena Shadrina, 2020. "Non-Hydropower Renewable Energy in Central Asia: Assessment of Deployment Status and Analysis of Underlying Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-29, June.
    14. Rawan Hakawati & Beatrice Smyth & Helen Daly & Geoffrey McCullough & David Rooney, 2019. "Is the Fischer-Tropsch Conversion of Biogas-Derived Syngas to Liquid Fuels Feasible at Atmospheric Pressure?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-28, March.
    15. Kamila Pronińska & Krzysztof Księżopolski, 2021. "Baltic Offshore Wind Energy Development—Poland’s Public Policy Tools Analysis and the Geostrategic Implications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-17, August.
    16. Tseng, Ming-Lang & Ardaniah, Viqi & Sujanto, Raditia Yudistira & Fujii, Minoru & Lim, Ming K., 2021. "Multicriteria assessment of renewable energy sources under uncertainty: Barriers to adoption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    17. Dimitris Drikakis & Talib Dbouk, 2022. "The Role of Computational Science in Wind and Solar Energy: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-20, December.
    18. Sattich, Thomas & Freeman, Duncan & Scholten, Daniel & Yan, Shaohua, 2021. "Renewable energy in EU-China relations: Policy interdependence and its geopolitical implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2020. "Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(4), pages 725-750, December.
    20. Nicolae PINTILIE, 2021. "Is there a Connection between Renewable Energy and Geopolitics? A Review," Management and Economics Review, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 6(1), pages 112-122, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:11:y:2020:i:2:n:e625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1757-7799 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.