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Managing the Risk of Global Climate Catastrophe: An Uncertainty Analysis

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  • Hung‐po Chao

Abstract

Despite much scientific progress over many decades, the nature of global climate change remains highly uncertain, and the possibility of global climate catastrophe is one of the main concerns in public debates about global climate change. In this paper, we present a model which incorporates the risk of climate catastrophe in an analysis of greenhouse gas abatement strategy. In this model, the timing and severity of climate catastrophe are treated probabilistically. The impacts of key uncertainties on optimal policy are analyzed, and the expected values of additional information that reduces the uncertainty associated with the world economy, carbon cycle, climate change, and climate damage are estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Hung‐po Chao, 1995. "Managing the Risk of Global Climate Catastrophe: An Uncertainty Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 69-78, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:15:y:1995:i:1:p:69-78
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00094.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen C Peck & Thomas J. Teisberg, 1992. "CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
    2. Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels, 1990. "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Cost Analysis for the USA," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 51-74.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shogren, Jason F. & Toman, Michael, 2000. "Climate Change Policy," Discussion Papers 10767, Resources for the Future.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S., 2000. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 233-259, July.

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