IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jintdv/v35y2023i7p1684-1710.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inequality and the middle‐income trap

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoshan Hu
  • Guanghua Wan
  • Chen Yang
  • Anqi Zhang

Abstract

This paper proposes an indicator measuring the likelihood for an economy to escape the middle income trap (MIT) and then estimates the impact of income inequality on this indicator using 1960‐2019 cross‐country data. Major findings include the following: (1) The likelihood of escaping MIT is relatively large for Asia, followed by Europe, Africa, North America and South America. (2) Inequality is negatively and significantly correlated with the MIT indicator, particularly in freer, high‐income and MIT country groups. (3) Regarding the mechanisms, domestic investment, human capital accumulation and trade openness contribute positively to this indicator, while ageing does the opposite.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoshan Hu & Guanghua Wan & Chen Yang & Anqi Zhang, 2023. "Inequality and the middle‐income trap," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1684-1710, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:35:y:2023:i:7:p:1684-1710
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.3747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3747
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jid.3747?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2010. "On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Research Department Publications 4653, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Wan, Guanghua & Wang, Chen & Wang, Jinxian & Zhang, Xun, 2022. "The income inequality-CO2 emissions nexus: Transmission mechanisms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
    6. William Robert Reed, 2015. "On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(6), pages 897-905, December.
    7. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    8. Wong, Kar-yiu & Yip, Chong K, 1999. "Industrialization, Economic Growth, and International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 522-540, August.
    9. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Araújo, Eliane Cristina & Costa Peres, Samuel, 2020. "An alternative to the middle-income trap," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 294-312.
    10. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Melanie Krause & Stefan Szymanski, 2019. "Convergence versus the middle-income trap: the case of global soccer," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(27), pages 2980-2999, June.
    12. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2014. "Globalization and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 99-107.
    13. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    14. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2014. "Growth slowdowns redux," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 65-84.
    15. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1996. "Social Conflict and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 125-142, March.
    16. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    17. Roland Bénabou, 1996. "Inequality and Growth," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 11-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Wan, Guanghua & Lu, Ming & Chen, Zhao, 2006. "The inequality-growth nexus in the short and long run: Empirical evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 654-667, December.
    19. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
    20. Fishman, Arthur & Simhon, Avi, 2002. "The Division of Labor, Inequality and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 117-136, June.
    21. Radosevic, Slavo & Yoruk, Esin, 2018. "Technology upgrading of middle income economies: A new approach and results," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 56-75.
    22. Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2010. "On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Research Department Publications 4653, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    23. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
    24. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    25. Anthony Shorrocks & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "Spatial decomposition of inequality," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 59-81, January.
    26. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    27. Lei Wang & Mengjie Li & Cody Abbey & Scott Rozelle, 2018. "Human Capital and the Middle Income Trap: How Many of China's Youth are Going to High School?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 56(2), pages 82-103, June.
    28. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.
    29. Robyn Klingler-Vidra & Robert Wade, 2020. "Science and Technology Policies and the Middle-Income Trap: Lessons from Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(4), pages 717-731, April.
    30. Frederick Solt, 2020. "Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1183-1199, May.
    31. Oreiro, José L. & da Silva, Kalinka M. & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2020. "A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 26-38.
    32. Jong‐Wha Lee, 2020. "Convergence Success and the Middle‐Income Trap," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 58(1), pages 30-62, March.
    33. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798, December.
    34. Richard Doner & Ben Ross Schneider, 2020. "Technical Education in the Middle Income Trap: Building Coalitions for Skill Formation," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(4), pages 680-697, April.
    35. Keun Lee & Chan-Yuan Wong & Patarapong Intarakumnerd & Chaiyatorn Limapornvanich, 2020. "Is the Fourth Industrial Revolution a window of opportunity for upgrading or reinforcing the middle-income trap? Asian model of development in Southeast Asia," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 408-425, October.
    36. Vivarelli, Marco, 2014. "Structural Change and Innovation as Exit Strategies from the Middle Income Trap," IZA Discussion Papers 8148, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    37. Akio Egawa, 2013. "Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia?," Working Papers 797, Bruegel.
    38. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 15/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2020.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    2. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Ming Lu & Hong Gao, 2010. "When Globalization Meets Urbanization: Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality, and Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China," Working Papers id:3095, eSocialSciences.
    4. Hyun Park, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Equitable Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 121-140, February.
    5. Guanghua Wan & Chen Wang & Xun Zhang, 2021. "The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle: Asia 1960s to 2010s," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 795-822, February.
    6. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2011. "Regional Equality and National Development in China: Is There a Trade‐Off?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 628-669, December.
    7. Ming LU & Hong GAO, 2011. "Labour market transition, income inequality and economic growth in China," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 150(1-2), pages 101-126, June.
    8. Ugo Panizza, 1999. "Desigualdad del ingreso y crecimiento económico: elementos de juicio de datos de USA," Research Department Publications 4179, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & José-Carlos Tello, 2014. "The Political Economy of Growth, Inequality, the Size and Composition of Government Spending," Working Papers 19, Peruvian Economic Association.
    10. Adnen Ben Nasr & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Inequality on Per Capita Real GDP of the United States," Working Papers 201820, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Kochanowicz, Jacek, 2010. "Intra-provincial inequalities and economic growth in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 237-258, September.
    12. Chang, Roberto, 1998. "Political party negotiations, income distribution, and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 227-255, April.
    13. Adnen Ben Nasr & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of inequality on real output levels of the United States," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 47-69, March.
    14. Wan, Guanghua & Lu, Ming & Chen, Zhao, 2006. "The inequality-growth nexus in the short and long run: Empirical evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 654-667, December.
    15. Quoc Hoi Le & Hoai Nam Nguyen, 2019. "The Impact of Income Inequality on Economic Growth in Vietnam: An Empirical Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(5), pages 617-629, May.
    16. Panizza, Ugo, 2002. "Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 25-41, March.
    17. Grossmann, Volker, 2008. "Risky human capital investment, income distribution, and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 19-42, March.
    18. Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Causality Between Per Capita Real GDP and Income Inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 269-289, January.
    19. Nancy Birdsall, 2008. "Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "The Evolution of Income and Fertility Inequalities over the Course of Economic Development: A Human Capital Perspective," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 137-174.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:35:y:2023:i:7:p:1684-1710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.