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A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps

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  • Oreiro, José L.
  • da Silva, Kalinka M.
  • Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J.

Abstract

When a rapidly growing country stagnates at middle-income levels and fails to transition into a high-income economy, we say it has fallen into a middle-income trap. An original interpretation of the causes of this phenomenon was offered in recent years by the so-called Brazilian New Developmentalist School. It must be noted, however, that this approach lacks a coherent formalization of its main propositions. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature. We assess, analytically and through numerical simulations, whether the Dutch disease can be propelled by the discovery of natural resources and the adoption of an external savings growth strategy. In both cases, a class coalition between workers and rentiers leads to an overvaluation of the real exchange rate. As a consequence, inflation is kept under control while artificially increasing real wages and financial incomes. The model provides a bridge between classical development theory and demand-led growth theories, drawing on elements from both traditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oreiro, José L. & da Silva, Kalinka M. & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2020. "A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 26-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:55:y:2020:i:c:p:26-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.07.008
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Guarini, Giulio & da Costa Oreiro, José Luis, 2023. "Ecological transition and structural change: A new-developmentalist analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Xiaoshan Hu & Guanghua Wan & Chen Yang & Anqi Zhang, 2023. "Inequality and the middle‐income trap," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1684-1710, October.
    5. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    6. Alfano, Lucia, 2022. "The new developmental state and the challenges of the socio-ecological transformation: Lessons from Argentina and Brazil," IPE Working Papers 189/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    7. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Growth slowdowns at middle income levels: Identifying mechanisms of external constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 288-305, May.
    8. Cunha, André Moreira & Lélis, Marcos Tadeu Caputi & Haines, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari & Franke, Luciane, 2023. "Exports of manufactured goods and structural change: Brazil in the face of Chinese competition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Zhang, Lili & Yang, Dexiang & Guo, Yunfei, 2023. "Dual circulation development model and credit growth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    10. Marcelo Arend & Vinicius Zuniga Fagotti & Glaison Augusto Guerrero & Pedro Cezar Dutra Fonseca & Julimar da Silva Bichara, 2023. "Development strategies and path dependence: Institutional elements for making sense of Brazil's falling behind and South Korea's forging ahead," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(305), pages 155-180.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New developmentalism; Demand-led growth; Structural change; Exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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