IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v40y2021i5p849-860.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can night trading sessions improve forecasting performance of gold futures' volatility in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Xuan Yao
  • Xiaofeng Hui
  • Kaican Kang

Abstract

We use heterogeneous autoregression (HAR) and two related HAR extension models to examine volatility forecasting performances before and after the launch of night trading sessions in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold futures market. To capture fluctuations from external information and volatility of realized volatility (RV), we incorporate the trading volume and jumping into the HAR‐V‐J model in the first place and then incorporate a GARCH specification into the HAR‐GARCH model. Results showed that there were large fluctuations in SHFE gold futures market before the launch of night trading sessions and mostly stemmed from overnight fluctuation in the international gold futures market. After the launch of night trading sessions, the realized volatility has a clear trend of moderation. In the in‐sample estimation, both jump and external information are found to have significant explanatory power with the HAR‐V‐J model. Additionally, the volatility clustering and high persistence of the realized volatility were confirmed by the GARCH coefficients. Last but not the least, night trading sessions have significantly improved the out‐of‐sample forecasting performances of realized volatility models. Among them, the HAR‐V‐J model is the best‐performing model. This conclusion holds for various prediction horizons and has great practical values for investors and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuan Yao & Xiaofeng Hui & Kaican Kang, 2021. "Can night trading sessions improve forecasting performance of gold futures' volatility in China?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 849-860, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:40:y:2021:i:5:p:849-860
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2748
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2748
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2748?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fulvio Corsi & Stefan Mittnik & Christian Pigorsch & Uta Pigorsch, 2008. "The Volatility of Realized Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 46-78.
    2. Ebenezer Asem & Aditya Kaul, 2008. "Trading time and trading activity: evidence from extensions of the NYSE trading day," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 225-242.
    3. Todorova, Neda, 2015. "The course of realized volatility in the LME non-ferrous metal market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
    5. Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
    6. Tseng-Chan Tseng & Hung-Cheng Lai & Cha-Fei Lin, 2012. "The impact of overnight returns on realized volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 357-364, March.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    9. Qu, Hui & Duan, Qingling & Niu, Mengyi, 2018. "Modeling the volatility of realized volatility to improve volatility forecasts in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 767-776.
    10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2004. "Analytical Evaluation Of Volatility Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1079-1110, November.
    11. Nathan Kauffman, 2013. "Have extended trading hours made agricultural commodity markets riskier?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 67-94.
    12. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Volatility forecasting: The role of lunch-break returns, overnight returns, trading volume and leverage effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 609-619.
    13. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
    14. Liu, Qingfu & An, Yunbi, 2014. "Risk contributions of trading and non-trading hours: Evidence from Chinese commodity futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 17-29.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Albers, Stefan, 2023. "The fear of fear in the US stock market: Changing characteristics of the VVIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Xuehong & Zhang, Hongwei & Zhong, Meirui, 2017. "Volatility forecasting using high frequency data: The role of after-hours information and leverage effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 58-70.
    2. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    3. Wei Zhang & Kai Yan & Dehua Shen, 2021. "Can the Baidu Index predict realized volatility in the Chinese stock market?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, December.
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    6. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    7. Beum-Jo Park, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets Using a Bivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Surprising Information," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 37-58, September.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2008. "Realized volatility," Working Paper Series WP-08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Halbleib Roxana & Voev Valeri, 2011. "Forecasting Multivariate Volatility using the VARFIMA Model on Realized Covariance Cholesky Factors," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 134-152, February.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
    12. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    13. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "Night trading with futures in China: The case of Aluminum and Copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Huang, Xin, 2011. "A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 176-189, January.
    15. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02505861, HAL.
    16. Jayawardena, Nirodha I. & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Su, Jen-Je, 2020. "Volatility forecasting using related markets’ information for the Tokyo stock exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 143-158.
    17. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-02505861, HAL.
    18. Andrea BUCCI, 2017. "Forecasting Realized Volatility A Review," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 94-138.
    19. Chen, Wang & Lu, Xinjie & Wang, Jiqian, 2022. "Modeling and managing stock market volatility using MRS-MIDAS model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 625-635.
    20. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:40:y:2021:i:5:p:849-860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.