IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v28y2023i2p1250-1260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nexus between non‐performing loans and economic growth in emerging countries: Evidence from Turkey with wavelet coherence approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafa Tevfik Kartal
  • Derviş Kirikkaleli
  • Fatih Ayhan

Abstract

The study aims to capture the co‐movement between non‐performing loans (NPLs) and economic growth (EG) in Turkey using the quarterly data from 2005/Q1 to 2019/Q4 and applying the wavelet coherence approach, which allows the study to explore both the long‐run and short‐run causal linkages between NPLs and EG in Turkey. The findings reveal that (a) there is a significant vulnerability in NPLs and EG over the selected period at different frequency levels; (b) EG in Turkey has a strong power for explaining NPLs in the long‐run; (c) EG causes NPLs in Turkey in the short‐term between 2007 and 2010, which implies that the credit growth in the period with the increasing NPLs supports EG of Turkey. The outcomes of the tests underline the importance of EG for predicting NPLs in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Derviş Kirikkaleli & Fatih Ayhan, 2023. "Nexus between non‐performing loans and economic growth in emerging countries: Evidence from Turkey with wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1250-1260, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:2:p:1250-1260
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2474
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2474?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    2. Peter J. Morgan & Victor Pontines, 2018. "Financial Stability And Financial Inclusion: The Case Of Sme Lending," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(01), pages 111-124, March.
    3. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    4. Wiem Ben Jabra & Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2017. "The determinants of credit and insolvency risk of European commercial banks: a dynamic panel data analysis," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 111-143.
    5. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Bruna Skarica, 2014. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 37-59.
    7. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Cemal Ýbis & Ozgür Çatikkas, 2018. "Adequacy of audit committees: A study of deposit banks in Turkey," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 18(2), pages 150-165, June.
    8. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2016. "Deflation, bank credit growth, and non-performing loans: Evidence from Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-305.
    9. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    10. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    11. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Mahmoud Abdelaziz Touny & Mohamed Abdelhameed Shehab, 2015. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study of Some Arab Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 11-22, May.
    13. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Bank lending in Germany and the UK: are there differences between a bank-based and a market-based country?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 266-279.
    14. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    16. Alandejani, Maha & Asutay, Mehmet, 2017. "Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking sectors: Does the Islamic finance matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 832-854.
    17. Irena Szarowska, 2018. "Effect of macroeconomic determinants on non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 20-35.
    18. Natasa Erjavec & Boris Cota & Sasa Jaksic, 2012. "Sign restriction approach to macro stress-testing of the Croatian banking system," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 36(4), pages 395-412.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gamze Öztürk DANIŞMAN, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Stability: A Financial Statement Analysis of Turkish Banks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(38).
    2. Koju Laxmi & Wang Shouyang & Abbas Ghulam, 2018. "Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 512-531, December.
    3. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    4. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    5. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Maryem Naili & Younes Lahrichi, 2022. "The determinants of banks' credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 334-360, January.
    7. Serpil Kılıç Depren & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal, 2021. "Prediction on the volume of non‐performing loans in Turkey using multivariate adaptive regression splines approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6395-6405, October.
    8. Olayinka Akinlo & Mofoluwaso Emmanuel, 2014. "Determinants Of Non-Performing Loans In Nigeria," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(2), pages 21-28.
    9. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-208.
    10. Željko Jović, 2017. "Determinants Of Credit Risk – The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(212), pages 155-188, January -.
    11. Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Credit risk and the business cycle: What do we know?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    13. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-66.
    14. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    15. Louhichi, Awatef & Boujelbene, Younes, 2016. "Credit risk, managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 104-121.
    16. Kandela Ramesh, 2019. "Bad Loans of Public Sector Banks in India: A Panel Data Study," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 22-30, May.
    17. Teodor Hada & Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Iulia Cristina Iuga & Dorin Wainberg, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans of Romanian Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Michael Adusei & Ngozi Adeleye & Beatrice Sarpong‐Danquah, 2022. "Legal cost of contract enforcement and nonperforming loans: Is credit information sharing relevant?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2501-2514, September.
    19. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Nikola Fabris & Nina Vujanović, 2022. "What Drives Credit Risk? Empirical Evidence from Southeast Europe," wiiw Working Papers 214, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:2:p:1250-1260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.