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Can sentiments on macroeconomic news explain stock returns? Evidence form social network data

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  • Yingying Xu
  • Jichang Zhao

Abstract

Macroeconomic factors and sentiments affect investors' decisions and thus stock returns. However, do sentiments on macro‐economic news explain stock returns? This article proposes a theoretical model to explain the relationship between stock returns and the market misperception which is driven by investors' sentiments. Then, microblogs regarding the macro‐economy posted on Sina Weibo, a mainstream Chinese Social Network Site, are extracted to measure investors' macroeconomic sentiments (IMSs) through machine learning approaches. A preliminary event study suggests that IMSs capture the development of influential macroeconomic events. Empirical results demonstrate that orthogonalized IMSs including anger, disgust, fear, joy and sadness exert heterogeneously significant effects on the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI), and no reverse effect is found. Thus, the IMS contains additional information related to the macro‐economy; but cannot be explained by macroeconomic factors. IMSs improve the in‐ and out‐of‐sample predictabilities of SHCI returns. Thereby, investors' sentiment can be an important channel through which the macro‐economy affects the stock market.

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  • Yingying Xu & Jichang Zhao, 2022. "Can sentiments on macroeconomic news explain stock returns? Evidence form social network data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2073-2088, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:2:p:2073-2088
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2260
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    2. Chien-Liang Chiu & Paoyu Huang & Min-Yuh Day & Yensen Ni & Yuhsin Chen, 2024. "Mastery of “Monthly Effects”: Big Data Insights into Contrarian Strategies for DJI 30 and NDX 100 Stocks over a Two-Decade Period," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Alzahrani, Ahmed Ibrahim & Sarsam, Samer Muthana & Al-Samarraie, Hosam & Alblehai, Fahad, 2023. "Exploring the sentimental features of rumor messages and investors' intentions to invest," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 433-444.
    4. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Jingjing Chen & Sultan Salem, 2024. "How official TV news affect public inflation expectations? Evidence from the Chinese national broadcaster China Central Television," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 819-831, January.

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