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The Monday effect revisited: An alternative testing approach

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  • Alt, Raimund
  • Fortin, Ines
  • Weinberger, Simon
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    Abstract

    This paper questions traditional approaches for testing the Monday effect of stock returns. We propose an alternative, multiple hypothesis testing approach based on the closure test principle which controls the multiple type I error. We consider the US, the UK and the German stock markets and test Monday related pairwise comparisons of daily expected stock returns, while the probability of committing any type I error is always kept smaller than a prespecified level [alpha], for each combination of true null hypotheses. Overall, the new testing approach supports previous findings of a Monday effect for the 1970s and 1980s, in particular for the US and Germany, while it suggests that the Monday effect has vanished in the 1990s and 2000s in all three markets. The comparison of the closure test procedure, the traditional multiple t-test and the Bonferroni test, a classical multiple test procedure, shows that traditional testing may result in spurious significance while the Bonferroni test may sometimes be too conservative.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 447-460

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:447-460

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Monday effect Day-of-the-week effect Multiple hypotheses testing Multiple comparisons Closed test procedures Multiple level [alpha] test;

    References

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    1. Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Testing the Significance of Calendar Effects," Working Papers 2003-03, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Keim, Donald B & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1984. " A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 819-35, July.
    3. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    4. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
    5. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
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    7. Connolly, Robert A., 1991. "A posterior odds analysis of the weekend effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 51-104.
    8. Savin, N.E., 1984. "Multiple hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 827-879 Elsevier.
    9. Greenstone, Michael & Oyer, Paul, 2000. " Are There Sectoral Anomalies Too? The Pitfalls of Unreported Multiple Hypothesis Testing and a Simple Solution," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 37-55, July.
    10. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    11. Neusser, Klaus, 1991. "Testing the long-run implications of the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 3-37, February.
    12. Honghui Chen & Vijay Singal, 2003. "Role of Speculative Short Sales in Price Formation: The Case of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 685-706, 04.
    13. Peter Huber, 1997. "Stock market returns in thin markets: evidence from the Vienna Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 493-498.
    14. Chang, Eric C. & Pinegar, J. Michael & Ravichandran, R., 1993. "International Evidence on the Robustness of the Day-of-the-Week Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 497-513, December.
    15. Madlener, Reinhard & Alt, Raimund, 1996. "Residential Energy Demand Analysis: An Empirical Application of the Closure Test Principle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 203-20.
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