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An anatomy of calendar effects

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  • Laurens Swinkels
  • Pim van Vliet

Abstract

This article studies the interaction and profitability of the five most well-established calendar effects: the Halloween effect, January effect, turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect, weekend effect and holiday effect. We find that Halloween and TOM are the strongest and most profitable effects. The equity premium over the sample 1963–2008 is 7.2 per cent if there is a Halloween or TOM effect, and −2.8 per cent in all other cases. An investment strategy based on these two effects gives higher net risk-adjusted returns than a passive buy-and-hold strategy. These findings are robust across different sample periods, market segments and international stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurens Swinkels & Pim van Vliet, 2012. "An anatomy of calendar effects," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(4), pages 271-286, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:13:y:2012:i:4:d:10.1057_jam.2012.9
    DOI: 10.1057/jam.2012.9
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    Cited by:

    1. Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert S. & Atanasova, Christina V., 2015. "The benefits of combining seasonal anomalies and technical trading rules," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 36-44.
    2. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2015. "Sell in May and Go Away: Still good advice for investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
    3. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    4. Hubert Dichtl, 2020. "Investing in the S&P 500 index: Can anything beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 352-378, April.
    5. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "The impact of the Great Lent and of the Nativity Fast on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 89023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Dec 2016.
    6. Yingying Xu & Jichang Zhao, 2022. "Can sentiments on macroeconomic news explain stock returns? Evidence form social network data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2073-2088, April.
    7. Zhang, Cherry Y. & Jacobsen, Ben, 2021. "The Halloween indicator, “Sell in May and Go Away”: Everywhere and all the time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Khalil Jebran & Shihua Chen, 2017. "Examining anomalies in Islamic equity market of Pakistan," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 275-289, July.
    9. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    10. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2014. "Are stock markets really so inefficient? The case of the “Halloween Indicator”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 112-121.

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