Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?
AbstractThis paper focuses on the turn-of-the-month (TOM) and intramonth anomalies in government bond returns. In particular, we examine whether the TOM and intramonth effects exist in government bond markets, and moreover, whether these anomalies are related to the release of macroeconomic news as suggested in recent stock market studies. Using data on the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury Notes and German government bonds, we document a modest TOM effect in government bond returns. This effect does not disappear after controlling for the release of macroeconomic announcements, thereby suggesting that the origin of the TOM effect is not necessarily the same across asset classes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.
Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf
Government bonds Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects Clustered information;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
- Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
- Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Kopecky, Kenneth J, 1995. "Domestic macroeconomic news and foreign interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 763-783, December.
- Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.
- Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Overby & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2009.
"Which News Moves the Euro Area Bond Market?,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 1-31, 02.
- Carl R. Chen & Anthony Chan, 1997. "From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 573-592.
- Booth, G. Geoffrey & Kallunki, Juha-Pekka & Martikainen, Teppo, 2001. "Liquidity and the turn-of-the-month effect: evidence from Finland," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 137-146, June.
- Kohers, Theodor & Patel, Jayen B., 1996. "An examination of the day-of-the-week effect in junk bond returns over business cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-46.
- Paul McGuinness, 2006. "'Turn-of the-month' return effects for small cap Hong Kong stocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(14), pages 891-898.
- Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2007. "Macroeconomic News And Stock Market Calendar And Weather Anomalies," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 283-300.
- Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
- Jordan, Susan D. & Jordan, Bradford D., 1991. "Seasonality in Daily Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 269-285, June.
- Athanassakos, George & Tian, Yisong Sam, 1998. "Seasonality in Canadian treasury bond returns: An institutional explanation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-86.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.