IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/apfinm/v26y2019i2d10.1007_s10690-018-9263-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market Conditions and Calendar Anomalies in Japanese Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan

    (Hiroshima University)

  • Naheed Rabbani

    (University of Dhaka)

Abstract

This study revisits calendar anomalies in Japanese stock returns to examine whether they can be explained by market conditions. Results of the OLS and GARCH (1,1) regression models show that most of the well-known calendar anomalies no longer exist in Japanese stock returns when conventional methodologies are used. These calendar anomalies became evident during the Japanese bubble period and disappeared subsequently. To provide new evidence on calendar anomalies in Japanese stock returns, we examine calendar anomalies based on market conditions. We show that the day-of-the-week, January, turn-of-the-month, Halloween and Dekansho-bushi effects became evident in UP market conditions only. They were never evident in DOWN market conditions. All these anomalies are still found to be significant in UP market conditions. Our explanation is consistent throughout the whole sample period and is robust against the choice of index used to measure market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan & Naheed Rabbani, 2019. "Market Conditions and Calendar Anomalies in Japanese Stock Returns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(2), pages 187-209, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:26:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10690-018-9263-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-018-9263-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10690-018-9263-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10690-018-9263-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew C. Szakmary & Dean B. Kiefer, 2004. "The Disappearing January/Turn of the Year Effect: Evidence From Stock Index Futures and Cash Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 755-784, August.
    2. Cadsby, Charles Bram & Ratner, Mitchell, 1992. "Turn-of-month and pre-holiday effects on stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 497-509, June.
    3. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    5. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine Huirong, 2009. "The wandering weekday effect in major stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1388-1399, August.
    7. Edwin Maberly & Raylene Pierce, 2003. "The Halloween Effect and Japanese Equity Prices: Myth or Exploitable Anomaly," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 10(4), pages 319-334, December.
    8. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    9. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    10. A. Gregoriou & A. Kontonikas & N. Tsitsianis, 2004. "Does the day of the week effect exist once transaction costs have been accounted for? Evidence from the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 215-220.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Jaffe, Jeffrey & Westerfield, Randolph, 1989. "Is there a monthly effect in stock market returns? : Evidence from foreign countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 237-244, May.
    13. Sheridan Titman & Matthias Hanauer, 2014. "Is Japan Different? Evidence on Momentum and Market Dynamics," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 141-160, March.
    14. G. Kohers & N. Kohers & V. Pandey & T. Kohers, 2004. "The disappearing day-of-the-week effect in the world's largest equity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 167-171.
    15. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
    16. Shigeki Sakakibara & Takashi Yamasaki & Katsuhiko Okada, 2013. "The Calendar Structure of the Japanese Stock Market: The ‘Sell in May Effect’ versus the ‘Dekansho-bushi Effect’," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 161-185, June.
    17. Jaffe, Jeffrey & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "Patterns in Japanese Common Stock Returns: Day of the Week and Turn of the Year Effects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 261-272, June.
    18. Edwin D. Maberly & Raylene M. Pierce, 2004. "Stock Market Efficiency Withstands Another Challenge: Solving the "Sell in May/Buy after Halloween" Puzzle," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 1(1), pages 29-46, April.
    19. Kayacetin, Volkan & Lekpek, Senad, 2016. "Turn-of-the-month effect: New evidence from an emerging stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 142-157.
    20. Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.
    21. Mario Reyes, 2001. "Asymmetric volatility spillover in the Tokyo stock exchange," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 206-213, June.
    22. Hui, Tak-Kee, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in US and Asia-Pacific stock markets during the Asian financial crisis: a non-parametric approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 277-282, June.
    23. Jaffe, Jeffrey F. & Westerfield, Randolph & Ma, Christopher, 1989. "A twist on the Monday effect in stock prices: Evidence from the U.S. and foreign stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 641-650, September.
    24. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    25. Mustafa Gultekin & Bulent Gultekin, "undated". "Stock Market Seasonality: Internal Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    26. Penman, Stephen H., 1987. "The distribution of earnings news over time and seasonalities in aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-228, June.
    27. Kiyoshi Kato, 1990. "Weekly Patterns in Japanese Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(9), pages 1031-1043, September.
    28. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    29. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    30. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, June.
    31. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-454, June.
    32. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    33. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    34. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 2.
    35. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    36. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    37. Hakan Berument & Halil Kiymaz, 2001. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 181-193, June.
    38. Gultekin, Mustafa N. & Gultekin, N. Bulent, 1983. "Stock market seasonality : International Evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 469-481, December.
    39. Kato, Kiyoshi & Schallheim, James S., 1985. "Seasonal and Size Anomalies in the Japanese Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 243-260, June.
    40. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Borisov Todorov & Fernando Sánchez Lasheras, 2022. "Forecasting Applied to the Electricity, Energy, Gas and Oil Industries: A Systematic Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-15, October.
    2. Stefanescu Razvan & Dumitriu Ramona, 2020. "Changes of the Time Intervals Specific to Calendar Anomalies: the Case of TOQ Effect on Bucharest Stock Exchange," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 264-273.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diego Winkelried & Luis A. Iberico, 2018. "Calendar effects in Latin American stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1215-1235, May.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    3. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mehmet Hasan Eken & Taylan Ozgür Uner, 2010. "Calendar Effects in the Stock Market and a Practice Relatedn to the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market (ISEM)," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 59-95.
    5. A. R. Zafer Sayar & Onder Kaymaz & Ali Alp, 2010. "The Effect of the Transparency Level of the ISE-Listed Banks on Liquidity," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 27-58.
    6. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:59-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Faruk Bostanci & Saim Kilic, 2010. "The Effects of Free Float Ratios on Market Performance: An Empirical Study on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 1-14.
    8. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:27-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "DOW effects in returns and in volatility of stock markets during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 47218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Apr 2013.
    10. Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1995. "Calendar effects in the London Stock Exchange FT-SE indices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-93.
    11. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2020. "Expiration day effects on European trading volumes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1603-1638, April.
    12. Roberto Joaquín Santillán Salgado & Alejandro Fonseca Ramírez & Luis Nelson Romero, 2019. "The "day-of-the-week" effects in the exchange rate of Latin American currencies," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 485-507, Agosto 20.
    13. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    14. Matteo Rossi & Gabriella Marcarelli & Antonella Ferraro & Antonio Lucadamo, 2020. "How do Calendar Anomalies Affect an Investment Choice? A Proposal of an Analytic Hierarchy Process Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 244-249.
    15. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    16. Lobão, Júlio, 2019. "Seasonal anomalies in the market for American depository receipts," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 24(48), pages 241-265.
    17. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2018. "The Turn of the Month Effect in Asia-Pacific Markets: New Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 214-226, February.
    18. Andrew Coutts & Christos Kaplanidis & Jennifer Roberts, 2000. "Security price anomalies in an emerging market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 561-571.
    19. Khalil Jebran & Shihua Chen, 2017. "Examining anomalies in Islamic equity market of Pakistan," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 275-289, July.
    20. Pandey I M, 2002. "Is There Seasonality in the Sensex Monthly Returns?," IIMA Working Papers WP2002-09-08, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    21. Kenneth Hogholm & Johan Knif & Seppo Pynnonen, 2011. "Common and local asymmetry and day-of-the-week effects among EU equity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 219-227.
    22. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The day-of-the-week effect is weak: Evidence from the European Real Estate Sector," Discussion Paper Series 2015_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2015.
    23. Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:26:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10690-018-9263-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.