IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v3y2021i2ne83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macro worlds and micro predictions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Paul J. H. Schoemaker

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2021. "Macro worlds and micro predictions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:3:y:2021:i:2:n:e83
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.83
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.83
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.83?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cade Massey & George Wu, 2005. "Detecting Regime Shifts: The Causes of Under- and Overreaction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 932-947, June.
    2. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2020. "How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atanasov, Pavel & Witkowski, Jens & Ungar, Lyle & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip, 2020. "Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 19-35.
    2. Markus Glaser & Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2007. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 176-193, December.
    3. Cary Frydman & Gideon Nave, 2017. "Extrapolative Beliefs in Perceptual and Economic Decisions: Evidence of a Common Mechanism," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2340-2352, July.
    4. Bonye, Samuel Z. & Alfred, Kpieta B. & Jasaw, Godfred Seidu, 2012. "Promoting Community-Based Extension Agents as an Alternative Approach to Formal Agricultural Extension Service Delivery in Northern Ghana," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 2(01), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Mel W Khaw & Luminita Stevens & Michael Woodford, 2021. "Individual differences in the perception of probability," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-25, April.
    6. Elena Asparouhova & Michael Hertzel & Michael Lemmon, 2009. "Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1766-1782, November.
    7. Roccazzella, Francesco & Gambetti, Paolo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2022. "Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 97-116.
    8. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
    9. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Ambuehl, Sandro & Li, Shengwu, 2018. "Belief updating and the demand for information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 21-39.
    11. David J. Grüning, 2023. "Free will determines the limits of psychological foresight: Review of “Free Will” by Sam Harris," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
    12. Wolfgang Ketter & John Collins & Maria Gini & Alok Gupta & Paul Schrater, 2012. "Real-Time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided by Economic Regimes," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 1263-1283, December.
    13. Nils Rudi & David Drake, 2009. "Observation bias: The impact of demand censoring on newsvendor level and adjustment behavior," Harvard Business School Working Papers 12-042, Harvard Business School, revised Dec 2011.
    14. Johann Peter Murmann, 2020. "Historical methods in the social sciences: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    15. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Peter G. Moffatt & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2022. "Belief adjustment: a double hurdle model and experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 26-67, February.
    16. Jerker Denrell & Christina Fang, 2010. "Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(10), pages 1653-1667, October.
    17. Mohrschladt, Hannes & Langer, Thomas, 2020. "Biased information weight processing in stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-106.
    18. Scott DuHadway & Steven Carnovale & Vijay R. Kannan, 2018. "Organizational Communication and Individual Behavior: Implications for Supply Chain Risk Management," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 54(4), pages 3-19, October.
    19. Shi, Haijiao & Chen, Rong & Xu, Xiaobing, 2021. "How reward uncertainty influences subsequent donations: The role of mental accounting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 383-391.
    20. Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2022. "What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:3:y:2021:i:2:n:e83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.