IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/ecothe/v55y2017i3p305-318n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Current Account Deficits in the EU Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries: A Panel Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bucevska Vesna

    (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics, FYRM)

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical investigation of a large number of potentially significant determinants of current account deficits in five EU candidate and potential candidate countries (Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey) in the period 2005 Q1-2015 Q4. Using panel regression techniques we find that current account imbalances in the EU candidate and potential candidate countries are mainly determined by real GDP growth rate and the degree of trade integration. Other factors that have a significant impact on current account balances include relative per capita income, crude oil trade balance and level of financial development. Interestingly, the status of the observed country (an EU candidate or a potential candidate country) does not have any effect on the current account balance. It is expected that further economic and financial development of the EU candidate and pre-accession would encourage domestic saving and contribute to improvement of their current account positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bucevska Vesna, 2017. "Current Account Deficits in the EU Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries: A Panel Analysis," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 55(3), pages 305-318, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecothe:v:55:y:2017:i:3:p:305-318:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/ethemes-2017-0017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/ethemes-2017-0017
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/ethemes-2017-0017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Zanghieri, 2004. "Current Accounts Dynamics in new EU members: Sustainability and Policy Issues," Working Papers 2004-07, CEPII research center.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    3. World Bank, 2017. "Looking for Skills in the Former Yugoslav Republic Macedonia," World Bank Publications - Reports 27745, The World Bank Group.
    4. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    5. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Sustainability In Selected Transition Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp844, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    6. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    7. Calista Cheung & Davide Furceri & Elena Rusticelli, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 923-944, November.
    8. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(2), pages 305-333, May.
    9. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Current Account Dynamics in OECD Countries and in the New EU Member States: An Intertemporal Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 593-618.
    10. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    3. Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.
    4. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    5. Rihab Bousnina & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2022. "Current Account Balance and Financial Development in MENA Countries: The Role of Institutions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(1), pages 109-142, March.
    6. Tahir Mukhtar & Aliya H. Khan, 2016. "The Current Account Deficit Sustainability: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 397-419.
    7. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dieppe, Alistair & Chudik, Alexander, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 995, European Central Bank.
    8. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
    9. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1999. "Current Account Deficits and Capital Flows in East Asia and Latin America: Are the Early Nineties Different From the Early Eighties," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 57-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Nickel, Christiane, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 935, European Central Bank.
    11. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, May.
    12. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Alexander Chudik & Alistair Dieppe, 2012. "And then current accounts (over)adjusted," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 245-270, August.
    13. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    14. Karunaratne, Neil Dias, 2010. "The sustainability of Australia's current account deficits--A reappraisal after the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 81-97, January.
    15. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1997. "Determinants of Korean Trade Flows and their Geographical Destination," IMF Working Papers 1997/054, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7315, December.
    17. Dumitru, Ionut, 2008. "O evaluare a sustenabilitatii deficitului de cont curent in Romania [An assessment of the current account sustainability in Romania]," MPRA Paper 18614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alpaslan AKÇORAOĞLU & Erkan AĞASLAN, 2009. "Current Account Deficits, Sustainability and Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Turkey, 1987-2008," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 20(72), pages 1-20.
    19. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Accounting for trade deficits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. repec:got:cegedp:110 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle, 2001. "New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/02, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account deficit; current account determinants; the EU candidate and potential candidate countries; panel regression techniques;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:ecothe:v:55:y:2017:i:3:p:305-318:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.