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Extracting Probabilistic Information from the Prices of Interest Rate Options: Tests of Distributional Assumptions

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Author Info
Kabir K. Dutta (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
David F. Babbel (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

Return distributions in general and interest rates in particular have been observed to exhibit skewness and kurtosis that cannot be explained by the (log)normal distribution. Using g-and-h distribution we derived a closed-form option pricing formula for pricing European options. We measured its performance using interest rate cap data and compared it with the option prices based on the lognormal, Burr-3, Weibull, and GB2 distributions. We observed that the g-and-h distribution exhibited a high degree of accuracy in pricing options, much better than those other distributions in extracting probabilistic information from the option market.

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JB780304
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 78 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 841-870
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:3:p:841-870

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McDonald, James B. & Xu, Yexiao J., 1995. "A generalization of the beta distribution with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 427-428, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Wolfgang Bühler & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg & Ulrich Walter & Thomas Weber, 1999. "An Empirical Comparison of Forward-Rate and Spot-Rate Models for Valuing Interest-Rate Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 269-305, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  5. Driessen, J. & Klaassen, P. & Melenberg, B., 2000. "The performance of multi-factor term structure models for pricing and hedging caps and swaptions," Discussion Paper 93, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002. "On Measuring Skewness and Kurtosis in Short Rate Distributions: The Case of the US Dollar London Inter Bank Offer Rates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-25, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  8. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bookstaber, Richard M & McDonald, James B, 1987. "A General Distribution for Describing Security Price Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 401-24, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2000. "Reading the smile: the message conveyed by methods which infer risk neutral densities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-915, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Badrinath, S G & Chatterjee, Sangit, 1991. "A Data-Analytic Look at Skewness and Elongation in Common-Stock-Return Distributions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 223-33, April.
  12. Patrick Navatte & Christophe Villa, 2000. "The information content of implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis: empirical evidence from long-term CAC 40 options," European Financial Management, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 41-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Badrinath, S G & Chatterjee, Sangit, 1988. "On Measuring Skewness and Elongation in Common Stock Return Distributions: The Case of the Market Index," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 451-72, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Louis Eeckhoudt & Harris Schlesinger, 2008. "Changes in Risk and the Demand for Saving," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes & Vance L. Martin, 2003. "Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002. "On Measuring Skewness and Kurtosis in Short Rate Distributions: The Case of the US Dollar London Inter Bank Offer Rates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-25, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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