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Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review

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Author Info
Jackwerth, Jens Carsten

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Abstract

In this selective literature review, we start by observing that in efficient markets, there is information incorporated in option prices that might help us to design option pricing models. To this end, we review the numerous methods of recovering risk-neutral probability distributions from option prices at one particular time to expiration and their applications. Next, we move beyond one time to expiration to the construction of implied binomial trees, which model the stochastic process of the underlying asset. Finally, we describe extensions of implied binomial trees, and other non-parametric methods.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11634/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11634.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Derivatives 2.7(1999): pp. 66-82
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11634

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Related research
Keywords: Binomial Trees; Risk-Neutral;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bookstaber, Richard M & McDonald, James B, 1987. "A General Distribution for Describing Security Price Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 401-24, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," Papers 95-25, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    Other versions:
  3. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Brenner, Menachem & Eom, Young Ho & Landskroner, Yoram, 1996. "Implied foreign exchange rates using options prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 171-183. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Karim Abadir & Michael Rockinger, . "Density-Embedding Functions," Discussion Papers 97/16, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Banz, Rolf W & Miller, Merton H, 1978. "Prices for State-contingent Claims: Some Estimates and Applications," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 653-72, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Keller, Joachim & Glatzer, Ernst & Craig, Ben R & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002. "Extracting Probabilistic Information from the Prices of Interest Rate Options: Tests of Distributional Assumptions," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wael Bahsoun & Pawel Góra & Silvia Mayoral & Manuel Morales, . "Random Dynamics and Finance: Constructing Implied Binomial Trees from a Predetermined Stationary Den," Faculty Working Papers 13/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. W. Härdle & J. Zheng, . "How Precise Are Price Distributions Predicted by Implied Binomial Trees?," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-1, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  6. Alessandro Beber, 2001. "Determinants of the implied volatility function on the Italian Stock Market," LEM Papers Series 2001/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mariangela Franch, 1998. "La comunicazione on-line. Aspetti metodologici e risultati di alcune sperimentazioni," Quaderni DISA 010, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy.
  8. V. L. Martin & G. M. Martin & G. C. Lim, 2005. "Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 377-404. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Martin Scheicher & Ernst Glatzer, 2003. "Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements," Working Paper Series 212, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Wolfgang Härdle & Zdenek Hlavka, 2005. "Dynamics of State Price Densities," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Ben Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Paper 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sheri Markose & Amadeo Alentorn, 2005. "Option Pricing and the Implied Tail Index with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 397, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Daniel Giamouridis, 2005. "Inferring option-implied investors' risk preferences," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 479-488, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sheri Markose & Amadeo Alentorn, 2005. "The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution, Implied Tail Index and Option Pricing," Economics Discussion Papers 594, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Alessandro Beber, 2001. "Determinants of the implied volatility function on the Italian Stock Market," Alea Tech Reports 010, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
  16. A. Cherny, 2006. "Weighted V@R and its Properties," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 367-393, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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