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Extracting Risk-Neutral Probability Distributions from Option Prices Using Trading Volume as a Filter

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Author Info
Dupont, Dominique Y. (EURANDOM - TUE, The Netherlands)
Abstract

This paper introduces a new technique to infer the risk-neutral probability distribution of an asset from the prices of options on this asset. The technique is based on using the trading volume of each option as a proxy of the informativeness of the option. Not requiring the implied probability distribution to recover exactly the market prices of the options allows us to weight each option by a function of its trading volume. As a result, we obtain implied probability distributions that are both smoother and should be more reflective of fundamentals.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-104.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2001
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 104.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:104

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Related research
Keywords: Implied risk-neutral probability distribution; Implied-tree method;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Soderlind, P & Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Papers 621, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    Other versions:
  3. Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March. [Downloadable!]
  7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  10. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, . "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  12. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 269-283, September. [Downloadable!]
  14. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. " Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. JosÈ B. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "ERM bandwidths for EMU and after: evidence from foreign exchange options," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 53-89, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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