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Policy Divergence and Voter Polarization in a Structural Model of Elections

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  • Stefan Krasa
  • Mattias Polborn

Abstract

One of the most widely discussed phenomena in American politics today is the perceived increasing partisan divide that splits the U.S. electorate. A contested question is whether this diagnosis is actually true and, if so, what the underlying cause might be. We propose a new method that simultaneously estimates voters' preferences and parties' positions on economic and cultural issues. We apply the model to U.S. presidential elections between 1972 and 2008. The model recovers candidates' positions from voters' behavior and decomposes changes in the overall political polarization of the electorate into changes in the distribution of voters' ideal positions (voter radicalization) and consequences of elite polarization (sorting).

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Krasa & Mattias Polborn, 2014. "Policy Divergence and Voter Polarization in a Structural Model of Elections," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 31-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/675237
    DOI: 10.1086/675237
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    Cited by:

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    2. Paola Montilla & Magda Catalina Jiménez, 2020. "Elecciones 2018 en Colombia: la competencia política en un escenario de paz," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1176, October.
    3. Thomas L Brunell & Bernard Grofman & Samuel Merrill, 2016. "Components of party polarization in the US House of Representatives," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 28(4), pages 598-624, October.
    4. Roy, Sunanda & Wu, Kuan Chuen & Chandra, Abhijit, 2015. "Uncovering the "Will of the People": Measuring Preference Polarization among Voters," Staff General Research Papers Archive 38358, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Pedraza, Lucía & Pinasco, Juan Pablo & Saintier, Nicolas & Balenzuela, Pablo, 2021. "An analytical formulation for multidimensional continuous opinion models," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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